Ian Bremmer

It's taken longer time than they thought it was going to take, but they are making that progress.

That is the positive side of this.

You cannot stop there.

I want to add two components here that make me feel less upbeat about what is happening and what the future will bring.

The first component is that while it is true that today the United States and Israel have different thoughts on regime change, Trump was kind of hopeful that this was going to go to regime change.

I mean, he was the one that said, you know, we're going to rescue the Iranian people.

He was the one that said at the beginning, Iranian people take your government.

And then a few days ago, he's like, well, I understand why they're not taking their government because they're going to get blown up.

Those are two different things, right?

So the fact that it is more likely than not that the regime that is going to continue to be in place is a brutal, repressive regime and that the people that will suffer the most before the war, during the war, and after the war will continue to be the Iranian people is a loss.

Maybe, you know, I'm not saying a lot of Americans or Israelis care that much about that, but we should, and it matters.

So that's one component.

The second component is,

which is the other side of this, is that although Iran's conventional military capabilities have been significantly degraded, their economic capabilities today are a lot higher in terms of leverage and position over the straight than it was before.

And they're making a lot more money from exporting oil.

Now, this is coming from the same Trump administration that hammered repeatedly the Obama administration for the palace of cash that they were able to get

as part of the JCPOA, the Iranian deal.

And now, because Trump is so focused on we need to make sure that we get as much oil out as possible, he's allowing the Iranians to sell their oil at a premium to non-Chinese sources.

The Indians just agreed.

Reliance just bought that oil at a $7 premium, $110 to $120 a barrel,