Ian Bremmer

So, Scott, there are lots of reasons.

It's hard for me to tell you which ones are the most important, but they all move in this direction.

One is that Dubai, which has been like so much of the model of future growth,

We're the Switzerland of the Middle East, and we're attracting all these expats, and everything is safe and stable, and you've been there, I've been there many times, right?

That looks a lot more vulnerable when suddenly the Iranians are able to shut down the Strait and use their missiles to strike directly your five-star hotels, your airport, and the rest.

And so suddenly you see Abu Dhabi

the capital of the UAE, willing to focus much more on what they see as in their national interest right now.

And that is we're aligned with Israel.

We're aligned with the United States.

Those are the countries that are coming to our aid, not the Saudis.

We are going to sell as much oil as humanly possible in the near term as soon as the strait is opened at higher rates.

We're not going to align with voluntary restrictions on oil export because we can make money on that now, but long-term, we've got to diversify away from oil.

We've got to focus on tech investments.

We've got to focus on post-carbon energy.

That's the win for us.

then you have the fact that their view on Iran and this war is completely different from Saudi Arabia.

The Emiratis really want the war to continue.

They certainly don't want to see this Islamic Republic stay in place, and they don't want this regime to have the military, the ballistic missile capabilities, the proxy support, or potentially the nuclear capabilities.

In that regard, if the war were over today,

In six months, in 12 months, I could see the UAE joining with Israel in so-called mowing the grass, which you and I and Dan Sr.