Ian Dunning

I feel like, yes, although it sounds crazy.

It sounds like AI delirium when I say it, but I feel like there's some sense that that could be true.

But at some point I can't predict.

So at the very short time scale, people accept this already, right?

I can't tell you the price of a stock in a minute, and no one would reasonably expect any human to do so, even if they had the order book and spent all the time in the world staring at it.

But we accept that neural networks can do this.

And then when does that logic break down?

Why should it break down at some long time scale if it's ingesting all the data and has everything and it can keep it all in a context in a way a human can't?

Why should I be able to understand it?

And that is a strange thought.

A loss of control.

It feels like a loss of control.

People save us for math.

Maybe humans are actually very bad at math.

So it's not surprising AI is much better than humans at these math proofs.

Humans probably would be pretty bad at markets where thousands of tradable instruments on very long timescales exist.

We just kind of accepted that some people were good at this.

Maybe that was a temporary state of affairs.

I do think there are diagnostics we've done where we can see things that we can understand.

It's like looking at some very, very complex thing, and you can look at one facet of it and be like, this is a facet I understand.