Ian Dunning

And then we had that same feeling again when Opus 4.5 came out, and suddenly it was like, oh, wait, no, this is actually what we thought it was going to be six months ago.

So in the most recent model releases, the differences have been more subtle.

But we see, I think we have a much better sense of an ever-reducing set of errors they make.

And so we're kind of looking for those mistakes.

We spent some time in the past couple of weeks trying to come up with objective measures to index them against humans in the act of quant research, ideating signals and things.

Quant research used to be, as we talked about a little bit, like handcrafting indicators and things.

Why not ask AI agents to do that and compare them against humans, like a little sort of battle?

And it's very like, I don't know, intern level AI, perhaps?

The thing is, what do I think it'll be in a year?

I would not want to make a bold claim, but it will still be...

I feel like we're in that world today.

It's sort of post-post-post-capitalism.

When I see IPOs discussed for this coming summer at the valuations they are, I'm like, what is a fundamental?

What is anything?

It feels like markets are just... The cynical thing is everything is gambling.

And so everything is some sort of gambling market, including public markets.

But the joke is... It's flows, it's buying and selling, and it's worth what it's worth.

And it's detached, and more buyers and sellers' prices go up.

And models are excellent at...

pulling that out of data.