Ian Verrender

And so you're going to see much higher energy prices.

And that's what I worry about the Reserve Bank's assumptions that this is all going to be over in eight weeks' time.

Thank you.

See you.

Good morning, Carrington.

Well, I mean, there's absolutely no doubt that not pumping oil out of oil fields damages those fields and it damages the pressure in the fields.

I'm not sure, not being a technical person here, I'm not sure about how far that damages the pipes.

But I think one thing to be really cognizant of is that this is not merely something that affects one side of the Persian Gulf.

I mean, you know, the entire Persian Gulf is not really pumping oil at the moment.

Saudi Arabia is getting around about

half or so of its oil out through the pipeline that goes through to the Red Sea.

But there's a lot of damage being done to Saudi Arabia's fields as well.

I'm not sure about the veracity of the pipes exploding within three days, but clearly there is damage that will be incurred within those oil fields.

Yeah, I mean, look, two things there.

One, and the most important one, I think, is that from Tehran's point of view, they're prepared to fight to the death.

From Washington's point of view, I don't think America is prepared to fight to the death.

So, you know, you've got a different set of strategies running there.

But in terms of the damage to the global economy, well, we're entering week nine now.

And we've had a situation where around about 10% of the world's supply has actually been cut off because we're now cutting off Iran and about half of Saudi Arabia's oil supply has gone as well.

Now, over that nine-week period, there's been some estimates over the weekend that essentially calculate that if this continues on any further, we're going to be about a billion dollars of oil short if this continues for another month, through to about three months.