Jack Nicas

One other major difference, and that is Donald J. Trump.

What we have in Mexico right now is a sustained pressure campaign from the White House to do more against the cartels.

He does not want any more of the same excuses.

He is saying the Mexican government must solve its cartel problems or the U.S.

military will do it.

And that has meant repeated and public threats of a unilateral U.S.

military strike against the cartels, which President Sheinbaum has said is a red line that cannot be crossed.

And so instead, what we're seeing is the Mexican government doing everything it can to show it can handle the problem itself.

Well, you have to remember that California used to be Mexico.

The history between these two countries has not always been so rosy.

And so there is not a lot of eagerness for the U.S.

military to come in with Hellfire missiles and basically try to attack the cartels that way, because A, there's concerns about sovereignty, and B, there's concerns about collateral damage and the number of civilians that can be killed.

So therefore, there is a real unease with what Trump is threatening, and there also is a real commitment by the Mexican government now to try to show that it can handle the problem itself.

That is exactly the theory we're hearing from a lot of folks across Mexico who study this, that basically, Shane Baum wanted to go after the cartels, but going after the cartels in Mexico with the political structure that exists, with the corruption that exists within the Mexican government from the federal to the local level is very difficult.

But when you have the president of the United States saying, you better do this or we will invade,

That changes the calculus.

She can go back to her political party and say, I don't have any choice.

I'm going after El Mencho.

So officials aren't saying outright that this is giving them political cover.

Even off the record, they are saying that they're doing this because it's good for Mexico.