Jack Nicas

The history between these two countries has not always been so rosy.

And so there is not a lot of eagerness for the U.S.

military to come in with Hellfire missiles and basically try to attack the cartels that way, because A, there's concerns about sovereignty, and B, there's concerns about collateral damage and the number of civilians that can be killed.

So therefore, there is a real unease with what Trump is threatening, and there also is a real commitment by the Mexican government now to try to show that it can handle the problem itself.

That is exactly the theory we're hearing from a lot of folks across Mexico who study this, that basically, Shane Baum wanted to go after the cartels, but going after the cartels in Mexico with the political structure that exists, with the corruption that exists within the Mexican government from the federal to the local level is very difficult.

But when you have the president of the United States saying, you better do this or we will invade,

That changes the calculus.

She can go back to her political party and say, I don't have any choice.

I'm going after El Mencho.

So officials aren't saying outright that this is giving them political cover.

Even off the record, they are saying that they're doing this because it's good for Mexico.

But, you know, when those conversations do go deeper and when you speak to more people, there is really an acknowledgement that the Trump effect is real.

Yes.

So it was surprising that the violence died down that quickly, in large part because we haven't seen it die down like that in other instances of the top leaders getting captured or killed.

And so I think your theory is certainly a valid one because we have already made clear here that President Shane Baum is worried about a strike from Donald Trump.

Let's be clear.

The narcos are also worried.

Hmm.

You know, our colleague Paulina Villegas and I just got back from Sinaloa where we met with multiple narcos and they were very worried.

And it also, they gave the same reason that the government officials are giving, which is the capture of Maduro changed the game for us.