Jake Silverman

I think you're going to see them do recessionary make work projects to try and keep the construction sector employed.

We're already seeing massive infrastructure investment.

Um, I, I think that there's still, even with this, there's still a huge risk that you start seeing construction unemployment get, get crazy.

And, and those are the, those are the last people you want unemployed, the people with the skidoos and the guns and the big trucks.

Like, honestly, man, like I grew up in a town, all my buddies are, are, are blue collar.

Like I would not want them to be the ones without jobs.

Yeah.

Well, I mean, yeah, I'm from Keswick, Ontario.

So yeah, I guess I just, yeah.

Um, it's interesting.

Like it seems to be shifting, like it's, it's localized, right?

So yeah, I think that there are markets that are clearly overbuilt and vacancies are rising and rents are falling and the pro formas are just not working anymore.

And is it materializing yet in, uh, delinquencies?

No, like actually, uh, uh, year over year delinquencies and multifamily are falling on CMHC books.

Could it eventually maybe, um,

I could definitely see multifamily delinquencies rise, not to a point where I don't think that it would be at risk for CMHC or whatever, but I think you're starting to see it shift.

Every condo developer in Toronto that I speak to on a regular basis, and I told them this in 2022 at one of their industry events, hey, all of you guys are going to be building purpose-built rental in 2025 and 2026.

You might as well start your pivot now and start retooling and revisiting your projects.

And I'm trying to sell them underwriting on these things.

So they just think I'm full of it.