James King

Very interesting.

And I mean, at the moment, we're all focused on what's happening in Iran and in the war in the Gulf and obviously the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

If there was to be some Chinese action toward Taiwan, and you've, you know, sketched out a broad spectrum of what that might involve, what kind of a hit could we expect for the global economy?

I mean...

One of the most famous Taiwanese companies is, of course, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, TSMC, with a huge share of global chip manufacturing.

But that's just one.

I mean, what kind of a hit are we talking about for the global economy?

I'm back to Chinese manufacturing for my prediction, Alice.

I think the starkest comments in the economic realm from last week came from the CEO of Honda,

the Japanese automaker who said that the Japanese auto industry is, quote, on the brink of survival.

And he made this comment because of the impact of Chinese competition.

The CEO, whose name is Toshihiro Mibei,

had visited an automated Chinese car parts supplier in Shanghai.

And on emerging from that, he said bluntly, we have no chance against this.

He was talking about the cost, speed, and quality advantages of Chinese EV manufacturers.

So my first reaction here is, what took you so long?

We've been saying this really since we started here on China Decode, that the strength of Chinese manufacturing, not just in EVs, but across the board, is pretty much unassailable right now.

But my second reaction is that Mr. Mibe is telling the truth.

And my prediction is that this year, we will see a major disruptive shock to a Japanese automaker.

I don't quite know exactly what that means.