James Kynge

I guess we're a broad church here, aren't we?

I think that at some point China will emerge from whatever it's doing behind the scenes on both the Iran conflict and on the Ukraine conflict to take a more public role.

And I think this role will be to use its powers to mediate some aspects of the peace that follows each of these conflicts.

And I think it will do this partly as a conduit

to help it invest and subsequently rebuild, I mean, physically rebuild, construct infrastructure and buildings in both of these countries.

So I guess that's a fairly bold prediction, given where we are, both in the Ukraine conflict and in the Iran conflict.

But at some point, these conflicts have to end.

And I think that China will be focusing on the after game already.

Very interesting.

This year China is expected to contribute 26.6% of the world's total GDP growth.

That will mean that China's contribution to the world's growth will be more than all of the G7 countries put together and therefore

If China is tweaking its model to rely less on exports to the world and more on boosting consumer spending of Chinese citizens inside China, then that will have big implications for, well, companies that sell in China and also for all countries around the world that import Chinese stuff.

And I'm James King.

Yeah, Alice, as usual, we're reacting to a very fast moving and unpredictable picture.

But I think we need to say, you know, what we think the most important implications are.

And to me, there are three big things.

You've just mentioned the first one.

The overall impact of this is going to be that the tariffs on Chinese goods being exported to the U.S.

will decline by 7%.

Now, 7% doesn't sound massive, but it certainly isn't negligible either.