James Kynge

Even small tweaks in China's economic models orientation can have massive outside impacts on the rest of the world.

Just let me give a bit of crucial background here.

This year, China is expected to contribute 26.6% of the world's total GDP growth.

That will mean that China's contribution to the world's growth will be more than all of the G7 countries put together.

G7 countries, of course, are Canada, France, Germany,

Italy, Japan, the UK, and the United States.

So this single country will supply more growth to the global economy than all of the G7 countries put together.

And therefore, if China is tweaking its model to rely less on exports to the world and more on boosting consumer spending of Chinese citizens inside China, then that will have big implications for, well,

Companies that sell in China and also for all countries around the world that import Chinese stuff.

Now, I'm really interested to get your take on this, Alice, but personally, I think this IMF report is simply wishful thinking.

Yeah.

I do not think that China will change its economic model.

I do not think that China will boost its consumer spending in any meaningful way.

And I do not think that China will sort of resile, will backpedal at all on its incredible trade export performance, which last year gave China a record trade surplus of about 1.2 trillion U.S.

dollars.

So I think, you know, yet again, the IMF is whistling in the wind and this is not going to have any effect.

It basically stands, I think, as a barometer of the West's impatience with China to change its model.

But I don't think it's going to have much of an impact in convincing China to change its model.

But I'd love to hear your take on that.

Yeah, I think so.