James Kynge

I mean, if China's making 45% of the world's manufacturing value added by 2035, was it?

And there's another reference to a scholar calling China the OPEC of intermediate products, because it makes so many of the components that the world needs to make just about everything.

What sort of geopolitical power does that give China going forward?

I mean, does that mean that China can basically hold everybody to ransom, indulge in a bit of economic coercion when it wants to get its way in the world, either politically or in economic matters?

Yeah, I mean, aren't we already seeing that?

Well, I'm going to stick with the renminbi.

And as I say, I'm going to nail my colors to the mast.

I'll almost certainly be wrong because I think every currency prediction I've ever come across has been wrong in some way.

But I'd like to say, because I think it's so important, that I think next year, 2026, the renminbi will appreciate by 10% against the U.S.

dollar.

And this will have enormous impacts all over the world, both in flows of capital into China and potentially, you know, the interest that Chinese people show in buying foreign imports as well.

So that's my prediction, Alice.

I know it's a bold one.

I may not be right, but I do think that, you know, what I'm trying to get at is the direction that I think this is going to take.

I do think the renminbi will appreciate it.

Yeah, I mean, I think that Europe is certainly getting very hot under the collar about the size of its deficit with China, its trade deficit in particular.

But I think tariffs will be difficult for Europe.

What will be easier and what I expect to see much more of is non-tariff barriers.

And I think 2026, you know, which chimes with your prediction, may well be the year of non-tariff barriers in Europe aimed at keeping these super hyper-competitive Chinese exports out to some degree.