James Stewart

These layers, which are continuous across large areas of the North Atlantic, are evidence for both an increase in icebergs discharged from the Laurentide Ice Sheet in North America and a southward extension of cold polar waters. Scientists have hypothesized that these freshwater dumps reduced ocean salinity enough to slow deep water formation and therefore the AMOC.

Since the thermohaline circulation plays an important role in transporting heat northward, a slowdown would cause the North Atlantic to cool. Later, as the addition of freshwater decreased, ocean salinity and deep water formation increased and climate conditions recovered. Okay, so hopefully by now you've got the general gist of this pretty large, very real problem.

Since the thermohaline circulation plays an important role in transporting heat northward, a slowdown would cause the North Atlantic to cool. Later, as the addition of freshwater decreased, ocean salinity and deep water formation increased and climate conditions recovered. Okay, so hopefully by now you've got the general gist of this pretty large, very real problem.

Since the thermohaline circulation plays an important role in transporting heat northward, a slowdown would cause the North Atlantic to cool. Later, as the addition of freshwater decreased, ocean salinity and deep water formation increased and climate conditions recovered. Okay, so hopefully by now you've got the general gist of this pretty large, very real problem.

So we turn to the big question of when is it going to collapse? Note my use of when here. The thing that struck me the most while recording this video is that there are so many different papers written on the AMOC, and they all have different answers to that question of when.

So we turn to the big question of when is it going to collapse? Note my use of when here. The thing that struck me the most while recording this video is that there are so many different papers written on the AMOC, and they all have different answers to that question of when.

So we turn to the big question of when is it going to collapse? Note my use of when here. The thing that struck me the most while recording this video is that there are so many different papers written on the AMOC, and they all have different answers to that question of when.

But the one thing they all seem to agree on is that if we continue on our current trajectory, it's no longer a question of if, but indeed when, this collapse occurs. As we stated at the start of the video, until a few years ago, the general thinking in the IPCC was the probability of crossing that tipping point this century was less than 10%.

But the one thing they all seem to agree on is that if we continue on our current trajectory, it's no longer a question of if, but indeed when, this collapse occurs. As we stated at the start of the video, until a few years ago, the general thinking in the IPCC was the probability of crossing that tipping point this century was less than 10%.

But the one thing they all seem to agree on is that if we continue on our current trajectory, it's no longer a question of if, but indeed when, this collapse occurs. As we stated at the start of the video, until a few years ago, the general thinking in the IPCC was the probability of crossing that tipping point this century was less than 10%.

In the latest sixth IPCC report, they found that even for a low emissions scenario, the AMOC would weaken between 4% and 46% by the end of the century. But there are now conflicting reports suggesting that a collapse could happen as early as 2025. So which year is it? What's going on? Who's right? Who's wrong? It's a great question and I wish it was as straightforward as that, I really do.

In the latest sixth IPCC report, they found that even for a low emissions scenario, the AMOC would weaken between 4% and 46% by the end of the century. But there are now conflicting reports suggesting that a collapse could happen as early as 2025. So which year is it? What's going on? Who's right? Who's wrong? It's a great question and I wish it was as straightforward as that, I really do.

In the latest sixth IPCC report, they found that even for a low emissions scenario, the AMOC would weaken between 4% and 46% by the end of the century. But there are now conflicting reports suggesting that a collapse could happen as early as 2025. So which year is it? What's going on? Who's right? Who's wrong? It's a great question and I wish it was as straightforward as that, I really do.

So much of this comes down to how the AMOC is being modelled and the factors and physics taken into account to do that. A big hole in all of these models actually is that beyond paleoclimate data, we haven't really been measuring this stuff for long enough to give us properly accurate data. The IPCC reports use a model called CMIP6.

So much of this comes down to how the AMOC is being modelled and the factors and physics taken into account to do that. A big hole in all of these models actually is that beyond paleoclimate data, we haven't really been measuring this stuff for long enough to give us properly accurate data. The IPCC reports use a model called CMIP6.

So much of this comes down to how the AMOC is being modelled and the factors and physics taken into account to do that. A big hole in all of these models actually is that beyond paleoclimate data, we haven't really been measuring this stuff for long enough to give us properly accurate data. The IPCC reports use a model called CMIP6.

That consists of the runs from around 100 distinct climate models being produced across 49 different modelling groups. Critics have noted that the AMOC model they used for this system was a too stable AMOC. When they input the AMOC to the model, they had to tune it, as you would do a car.

That consists of the runs from around 100 distinct climate models being produced across 49 different modelling groups. Critics have noted that the AMOC model they used for this system was a too stable AMOC. When they input the AMOC to the model, they had to tune it, as you would do a car.

That consists of the runs from around 100 distinct climate models being produced across 49 different modelling groups. Critics have noted that the AMOC model they used for this system was a too stable AMOC. When they input the AMOC to the model, they had to tune it, as you would do a car.

And the critics' suggestion is that this was a little too well tuned, and didn't represent a realistic scenario of estimates for an AMOC collapse, hence churning out these rather conservative estimates. For many critics, however, it goes beyond just being a conservative estimate. It actually becomes a significant underestimate.