James Stewart

And the critics' suggestion is that this was a little too well tuned, and didn't represent a realistic scenario of estimates for an AMOC collapse, hence churning out these rather conservative estimates. For many critics, however, it goes beyond just being a conservative estimate. It actually becomes a significant underestimate.

And the critics' suggestion is that this was a little too well tuned, and didn't represent a realistic scenario of estimates for an AMOC collapse, hence churning out these rather conservative estimates. For many critics, however, it goes beyond just being a conservative estimate. It actually becomes a significant underestimate.

On the other side of the fence, we've got papers saying it's going to collapse between 2025 and 2095, which is where we got that 2025 number from. But how did they get those numbers? These scientists use a different type of modeling called reanalysis, where they look to move past the limitations of our short observational record, relying instead on sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

On the other side of the fence, we've got papers saying it's going to collapse between 2025 and 2095, which is where we got that 2025 number from. But how did they get those numbers? These scientists use a different type of modeling called reanalysis, where they look to move past the limitations of our short observational record, relying instead on sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

On the other side of the fence, we've got papers saying it's going to collapse between 2025 and 2095, which is where we got that 2025 number from. But how did they get those numbers? These scientists use a different type of modeling called reanalysis, where they look to move past the limitations of our short observational record, relying instead on sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

It's important to note here that sea surface temperature as a measure of a mock collapse is currently widely debated in the scientific community. The actual observations of the AMOC since 2004 have long since discredited the evidence that the authors of this paper are actually using.

It's important to note here that sea surface temperature as a measure of a mock collapse is currently widely debated in the scientific community. The actual observations of the AMOC since 2004 have long since discredited the evidence that the authors of this paper are actually using.

It's important to note here that sea surface temperature as a measure of a mock collapse is currently widely debated in the scientific community. The actual observations of the AMOC since 2004 have long since discredited the evidence that the authors of this paper are actually using.

The five data points they show were collected several years apart by ship surveys, and it's well known and well established that they give a highly misleading impression of AMOC decline. To be fair, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, and they do say there's large uncertainty in their conclusions. To bring us back then to the big question of when will the AMOC collapse?

The five data points they show were collected several years apart by ship surveys, and it's well known and well established that they give a highly misleading impression of AMOC decline. To be fair, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, and they do say there's large uncertainty in their conclusions. To bring us back then to the big question of when will the AMOC collapse?

The five data points they show were collected several years apart by ship surveys, and it's well known and well established that they give a highly misleading impression of AMOC decline. To be fair, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, and they do say there's large uncertainty in their conclusions. To bring us back then to the big question of when will the AMOC collapse?

That paper we just mentioned using sea surface temperature as a key measurer concludes that there's a critical mean of the year 2057. A date supported in another paper which offers an estimated collapse between 2037 and 2064 with a mean probability of 2050. I'll let you make your own mind up on a specific date for AMOC collapse. But reading all that, one thing seems for sure.

That paper we just mentioned using sea surface temperature as a key measurer concludes that there's a critical mean of the year 2057. A date supported in another paper which offers an estimated collapse between 2037 and 2064 with a mean probability of 2050. I'll let you make your own mind up on a specific date for AMOC collapse. But reading all that, one thing seems for sure.

That paper we just mentioned using sea surface temperature as a key measurer concludes that there's a critical mean of the year 2057. A date supported in another paper which offers an estimated collapse between 2037 and 2064 with a mean probability of 2050. I'll let you make your own mind up on a specific date for AMOC collapse. But reading all that, one thing seems for sure.

If we keep going the way we are with global warming, something pretty intense is going to happen in many of our lifetimes. A full AMOC collapse would be a planetary scale disaster. There's no getting away from that. But if this thing collapses, well, what happens to us? It's not looking good in Europe. Let's start there.

If we keep going the way we are with global warming, something pretty intense is going to happen in many of our lifetimes. A full AMOC collapse would be a planetary scale disaster. There's no getting away from that. But if this thing collapses, well, what happens to us? It's not looking good in Europe. Let's start there.

If we keep going the way we are with global warming, something pretty intense is going to happen in many of our lifetimes. A full AMOC collapse would be a planetary scale disaster. There's no getting away from that. But if this thing collapses, well, what happens to us? It's not looking good in Europe. Let's start there.

European cities would experience a 3 to 10 degree Celsius drop in temperatures in just a few decades. Some areas will be much worse. February months in Norway, for example, could become 35 degrees colder every century. It's not like you'd have a new ice age in just two weeks, but the Northern Atlantic region and Europe in particular will cool substantially.

European cities would experience a 3 to 10 degree Celsius drop in temperatures in just a few decades. Some areas will be much worse. February months in Norway, for example, could become 35 degrees colder every century. It's not like you'd have a new ice age in just two weeks, but the Northern Atlantic region and Europe in particular will cool substantially.

European cities would experience a 3 to 10 degree Celsius drop in temperatures in just a few decades. Some areas will be much worse. February months in Norway, for example, could become 35 degrees colder every century. It's not like you'd have a new ice age in just two weeks, but the Northern Atlantic region and Europe in particular will cool substantially.