James Thomson

speaker

2,279 appearances 7 recordings 2 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard 12 Jun

James Thomson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 7 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 4.

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Chanticleer · SpaceX has lift-off, the business of the world cup & the big bank big short · 12 Jun 2026 podcast

You've got the slowing economy.

You've got the rate rises.

You've got the prospects of more interest rates potentially.

So that's more slowing of the economy.

You've got the budget and specifically changes to the negative gearing and capital gains tax, which could slow down housing investment and bank loan book growth.

And then you've got house prices.

And, you know, after decades of seemingly going up year on year, it's starting to slow, James.

So all that pressure equals pressure on banks' earnings and you add in rich valuations.

So we talk a bit about bank shares in Australia trading very richly compared to banks offshore, particularly Commonwealth Bank, the most expensive bank in the developed world.

So you're paying a lot for bank shares at the moment as a proportion of their earnings.

Their earnings are slowing.

So yeah, we did some calling around on Tuesday and it's funny, I didn't find a long short Australian fund manager.

So out of the hedge funds that can short Australian shares, I didn't find one that said, no, no, we're not shorting the banks.

It feels like they're all having a little nibble and they've been there for a little while, but it sort of stepped up in April once it became clearer that these changes were coming in the budget, that there really was going to be

potential pain for the bank's earning here.

So stockbrokers here, they're onto the story, James.

I know of two that are up in New York this week trying to get the New York funds interested in it.

So they're trying to create a bit of a thing here.

To be honest, I think it's more just about, this one's just about the earnings and the bank shares are a bit expensive.

I mean, I don't think anyone's tipping the full collapse.

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