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Jamie Loftus

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
4445 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

That's a sentence.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

Uh...

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

No, no, I said that.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

Oh, wait, no, he does say, he does say, he does say, of course, yes.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

Unbelievable.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

During his teenage gaming years, his mathematical abilities allowed him to sharpen his tactics and...

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

And of course, every trade SBF ever made at Jane was the subject of a risk-reward calculation.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

All of it boiled down to expected value.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

The formula is fairly simple.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

If the amount won multiplied by the probability of winning a bet is greater than the amount lost multiplied by the probability of losing a bet, then you go for it, irrespective of units.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

Utils, euros, dollars were all subject to the same reckoning.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

But at Jane, SBF asked most another trading principle.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

He learned to be risk-neutral.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

In simple terms, a trader, given a choice between a $50 and a 50% chance at $100, must be agnostic if they want to maximize the expected value of earnings over a lifetime.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

Those who prefer the sure win are risk-averse, and those who would rather gamble are risk-lovers.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

But both risk-lovers and the risk-averse are suckers equally because over the long run, they lose out to the risk-neutral who take both deals without prejudice.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

That makes no sense.

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

That makes no sense at all, because you're assuming you have to choose between one?

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

Can you just take both?

Behind the Bastards
CZM Rewind: How Sam Bankman-Fried Conned the Crypto World & The Sam Bankman-Fried Update

Is that the offer?