Jared Bernstein

I think the core was last seen at 2.7.

I think it would be around 2.2.

I do.

I've seen 0.7.

I've seen 0.5.

I think 0.5 is a good conservative estimate.

So frankly, I actually think that inflation was behaving in a way that made sense to me starting in 2023.

It was coming down.

I mean, just if you look at the graphic of year-over-year inflation, it goes up a mountain.

And that was a traumatic mountain for us, let me tell you.

I vividly remember the night-

You know, we get the data a day before it comes out.

I remember the night when we got the inflation report, it was June of 22, and it was 9%.

And, you know, we lost our you-know-what.

But the other side of the mountain, it came down just as quickly.

And really, what you said earlier is completely accurate, which is that it was the collision of a supply shortfall and very strong demand, particularly for manufactured goods.

I mean, we were...

we were tracing numbers that showed that the consumer spending share of manufacturing was higher than it had ever been.

And of course, people weren't interacting with services, they couldn't.

So they wanted to build out the new home office and get exercise equipment.