Jared Bernstein

At the same time, all that stuff was jammed.

And at the same time, they had both excess savings, so they were flush, and a lot of fiscal support, so they were flush.

So by 2022, I would argue that I had a very good understanding of where inflation was.

I thought it was transitory in the sense of long transitory.

You know, it wasn't going to come down as quickly as we wanted it to, but I knew it was going to come down.

is that this mysterious calculation called inflation expectations were well anchored.

In the 1970s, key setters of prices and wages didn't believe inflation was going to go back down, whereas in the COVID inflation, they did.

Everybody saw that this was a shock.

The Fed was still in charge.

Well, when I wrote that piece about four days ago, I said, I think it's 52-48 inflation.

That is the Fed, I argued, very close call, but that at their meeting in December 9th and 10th, I'm a little more worried about how sticky and high inflation is, in no small part because I'm looking at services inflation, which is sticky and high, about a point above where you'd like it to be.

And that's not really directly connected to the tariffs.

And, you know, a number of people are like, well, aren't you worried about the job market and the fact that the unemployment rate has climbed?

It's a point above where it was in April of 23.

It's 4.4%.

It was 3.4% in April of 23.

People say, well, 4.4 isn't that high.

Well, it's pretty high, but it used to be 3.4.

Sure.

This morning, we learned that the ADP, the payroll processing, you know, that according to them, payroll employment had a negative handle in November.