Jared Malsin

The Iranians have been trying to charge transit fees for ships as they cross.

We don't know whether that's going to become a permanent thing.

We know the Iranians have said that they want it to be permanent.

But all of those very important details are still to be hammered out.

The ceasefire, I would say, is fragile and incomplete.

There are several important questions around this.

Number one is that the Iranians continue to fire missiles.

missiles last night after the announcement at Israel and at Gulf countries.

Another important question is whether the ceasefire is going to include Lebanon.

Obviously, there's been an entire offensive by the Israeli military against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Israeli government did not want Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.

Pakistan, which is the key mediating country, says that it is going to be included.

So there's a lot of uncertainty around that.

And I think just a lot of built in fragility to this deal with so many different aspects of it still up in the air and still to be decided in the formal negotiations that are coming later this week.

This is a very unpredictable situation.

In some ways, this situation was unthinkable just a few months or a few years ago.

And now you have a US military offensive against Iran.

This is an absolutely seismic series of events that we've seen in the Middle East in the last 48 hours or so.

You have the Iranian regime now facing a kind of existential challenge to its authority, lashing out in response, launching waves upon waves of missile and drone strikes across the region, both on Israel and on Gulf Arab countries that has caused chaos.

It has shut down the airport in Dubai, one of the world's busiest, and also caused a surge in oil prices.

and really just created a lot of uncertainty about what comes next in Iran, in the region, and globally.