Jared Malsin

leverage over the global economy and all kinds of countries in Europe and Asia and so on that are reliant on Gulf oils.

So last night, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

He also acknowledged Iran's own terms for the ceasefire.

So you have two different parameters and a lot of ambiguity around how this ceasefire is going to unfold.

So it's sort of

Classic Trump where there's an announcement of a deal and they're going to work out the details later where there's supposed to be negotiations between U.S.

officials and the Iranian side brokered by Pakistan starting later this week.

But for now, there is a ceasefire in place.

The U.S.

military says that it has stopped offensive operations and the Iranians have declared their own victory in the war.

Yes.

So Trump in his social media statement announcing the ceasefire last night said that they received the 10-point proposal from Iran and he said that he believes it's a workable basis on which to negotiate.

So there's at least some implicit acknowledgement of Iran's position on this, which, as you said, include a number of important concessions.

Possibly the biggest one is that Iran wants to continue its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, where they say that movement of ships through the strait will take place in coordination with its armed forces.

Yes, that's exactly how it's being seen.

Obviously, this is a situation in which both sides are really declaring victory, and there's going to be a lot of spin and a lot of trying to shape public perceptions of what this all means.

But it is significant that six weeks ago, you had ships moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz, and now you have at least some official acknowledgement of Iran's influence and ability to have some degree of control over the

what passes through the Strait.

The shipping industry and the oil industry are reacting to this with some skepticism.

Right now, I can tell you there are not any ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and I think there's going to be a lot of caution from industry because they can't send giant oil tankers through the Strait until they have explicit assurances that those ships are going to be safe.