Jasmine Sun

So I do think we will see some labor impacts, even though I don't think it's going to be all of the jobs because physical world jobs, relational jobs, jobs that are protected by regulation like doctors, that stuff I think is going to take a long, long time to automate.

So...

I see these near-term disruptions.

I also think that retraining is usually overestimated by economists.

So folks who believe in stuff like lump of labor, economists, they tend to say that people are just going to go move to other jobs.

So before, during deindustrialization in the U.S., when a lot of factory jobs were automated, these economists predicted that the laid off factory workers would just move to different geographies to work in different factories or that they would learn like digital skills, like learn to code.

And I think we all kind of laugh at that now because we see over the past 10, 20 years that these steel workers did not learn to code.

They also did not move.

They often got addicted to opioids and had a really, really bad time.

And like we are still living out the political and the social consequences of deindustrialization, even though it wasn't that many workers.

And actually it created more jobs total, but the new jobs that were created by factory automation were all like software jobs in San Francisco and not like jobs in Buffalo, New York, right?

And so just because you have new jobs elsewhere in the economy does not mean that the people who are laid off are gonna be able to retrain even with income support, even with access to school,

into those new jobs, because these people might be like 50 years old, like they just, they don't have the brain elasticity anymore, they don't have the motivation anymore to go and learn something brand new.

And so I think that even if it's not, even if it's, let's say 5% of jobs are going to be automated by AI, and it's not all of the jobs immediately, I think a lot of these folks are going to really struggle to retrain.

I don't think that they're all going to easily switch into a new job.

I think they're going to build a lot of

political resentment.

And so this is where it sort of connects to my interest in AI populism.

This time, maybe instead of right-wing resentment, the kind that drove Trump, it might be more like left-wing resentment where it's blaming the AI billionaires.

I think we already see that.