Jason Bordoff

And what matters is not the total number.

What matters is in a 10 to 15 million barrel a day per day disruption, how much you can get into the market every day.

And that's maybe two or three.

And then you're going to see some other ideas thrown around like waiving this law that makes it hard to move fuel between two U.S.

ports, waiving some environmental standards.

All of these are a few cents at the pump at most.

There is really not much that can be done.

So I think you're going to have a real energy crisis, and we're going to have to – I think that's going to be a major constraint on the administration that might cause people to need to pull back much more quickly.

That's what the market's betting on.

That's where we started in the beginning and why oil prices are not much higher than they are today.

And we should remember that most of the energy infrastructure in the region has not yet been damaged.

So it can start operating again relatively soon.

If you really start to see tit-for-tat escalation where you go after Iran and they've signaled they can come right back at us and other Gulf states, then you're talking about months or years, not weeks to months to try to get things back to normal.

I think the main thing would be either that the risk perception is still there, which makes it harder for people to move through.

The U.S.

tomorrow could say we've done what we need to do and we're leaving now.

Thank you very much.

You're not going to see tanker traffic restart unless Iran says, you know, Iran and Israel have a vote in this also, not just the United States.

And so if Netanyahu says we're not done yet or Iran says we don't feel the same way, then you're not going to see tanker traffic go through.

So you need to get to a place where people have confidence that it is safe to move through the strait.