Jason Calacanis
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Appearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
But that's implicitly saying in 15 or 20 years, this thing is going to be worth some gigantic number.
But if instead every business gets disrupted every five or six years, all you're going to end up with is just the cash.
And so what should employees do?
The rational reaction from employees will say, you know what?
I don't want your equity.
Give me more money.
And if all of a sudden you do that, the valuation multiples and the complexity changes again.
So I had my team put this chart together.
Okay, what is this?
Took a handful of SaaS companies and took the MAG6s.
And I just said, okay, if you take the market cap and you divide it by the annual free cash flow, what that tells you is how many years does it take to get back if you bought a share of stock?
How many years does it take from the free cash flow to come back so that you've earned back the cost of one share?
Snowflake, in 2023, it would have taken you almost 100 years.
And where is it now?
It's been cut in half.
ServiceNow, Atlassian, Workday, you see it.
And I think what this speaks to is the beginning of this re-rationalization in the public markets of saying, if super intelligence is coming, we have to be very careful about what we're willing to pay for these things.
But if you look on the right-hand side and the Mag7, what's so interesting is Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, the market is completely flipped the other way.
And what they're saying is, we believe that these cash flows
are essentially monopolistically durable forever.