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Jason Calacanis

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
23925 total appearances
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Voice samples: 17
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

But that's implicitly saying in 15 or 20 years, this thing is going to be worth some gigantic number.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

But if instead every business gets disrupted every five or six years, all you're going to end up with is just the cash.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

And so what should employees do?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

The rational reaction from employees will say, you know what?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

I don't want your equity.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

Give me more money.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

And if all of a sudden you do that, the valuation multiples and the complexity changes again.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

So I had my team put this chart together.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

Okay, what is this?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

Took a handful of SaaS companies and took the MAG6s.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

And I just said, okay, if you take the market cap and you divide it by the annual free cash flow, what that tells you is how many years does it take to get back if you bought a share of stock?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

How many years does it take from the free cash flow to come back so that you've earned back the cost of one share?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

Snowflake, in 2023, it would have taken you almost 100 years.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

And where is it now?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

It's been cut in half.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

ServiceNow, Atlassian, Workday, you see it.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

And I think what this speaks to is the beginning of this re-rationalization in the public markets of saying, if super intelligence is coming, we have to be very careful about what we're willing to pay for these things.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

But if you look on the right-hand side and the Mag7, what's so interesting is Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, the market is completely flipped the other way.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

And what they're saying is, we believe that these cash flows

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Lawsuits

are essentially monopolistically durable forever.