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Jason Crawford

👤 Person
753 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

And Koch was saying that bacteria were responsible for cholera.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

And Pettenkofer decided to disprove this.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

He was so convinced that, you know, just the bacteria alone were not the cause of cholera that he actually drank a bunch of cholera bacteria in a demonstration to prove that, you know, this theory is ridiculous.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

Somehow he survived.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

We don't totally know how.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

Seems like maybe he had a mild case of cholera or maybe it had some sort of pre-existing immunity.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

But that's how, you know, how convinced he was.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

So you might wonder, well, how do these people make any progress at all if they had the wrong theory?

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

Well,

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

They had a sort of right theory.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

They had a theory with some truth or possibility to it.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

They also had empirical correlations.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

So ever since the 1700s, people have been trying to collect data and just form empirical correlations between certain conditions of the environment and disease.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

And they had noticed that certain kinds of filthy conditions were related to disease, and that was correct.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

Also, by the way, evolution endowed us with a sense of smell and a sense of disgust, which to a first approximation are not bad ways to kind of avoid disease.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

And so some of these early reformers were driven as much by aesthetic sense as by health considerations.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

They wanted – and in fact, the early efforts to clean up the water were driven by taste, smell, color, things that you can directly perceive and that your natural sense of sort of cleanliness or aesthetics is going to guide you in basically the right direction.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

But it can only guide you so far.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

And what happened was eventually – so we were able to clean up the water somewhat.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"

But eventually when we got the germ theory and that had been really established and proven –