Jason

There are lots of costs.

Here's your poly market on a ceasefire.

25% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April.

47% chance by the end of May.

The Sharps are thinking this could wrap up, but ground invasion, which would be just really...

impactful, I think.

63% chance by the end of April, 71% chance by the end of December.

We're going to get into the second order effects, but what do you think, Chamath?

This obviously is super unpopular war.

Freeberg, let's talk a little bit about fertilizer.

You had brought up when we had the start of the Ukraine war, hey, this is the breadbasket.

We could have a massive famine.

Thankfully, that was avoided.

There were carve-outs for getting wheat and other crops out of Ukraine.

But here we are again.

with a significant amount of fertilizer comes out of that region and it's not flowing right now.

Do you have concerns this time around that we could see something similar?

We probably need Friedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like we did with pharmaceuticals, PPE, all these other things.

Yeah, we should have some sort of stockpile of fertilizer.

Looking at this, I think we'll have Trump pivot extremely soon.