All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
03 Apr 2026
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all in podcast. David Sachs couldn't make it this week, but we have the trio. David Freberg is here, your Sultan of Science, Jamal Khopatia. SpaceX filed confidentially to go public on April 1, targeting a 1.7 5 trillion with the T valuation.
When SpaceX goes public, if it's at that 1.75 trillion dollar valuation, so weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an IPO, they would be the eighth largest company in the world right behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco. They're both worth
1.7 x at the taping of this podcast tesla is number 10 with 1.37 trillion dollar valuation hey if you were to combine those two as many people are speculating will happen at some point and you can buy the stock ticker elon that would be a 3.1 trillion dollar company and that would make them the fourth largest company ahead of microsoft they're aiming to raise to about 75 billion which would be the by far the biggest raise ever in an ipo uh expected to go out in june
I think they were trying to hit the 420 date because that would have been even more hilarious, but they're not going to be able to do that. SpaceX recently acquired X.AI for $250 billion. That includes X and Twitter and the XAI, Large Language Model AI company, Starlink, generating between 50% and 80% of SpaceX's revenue.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of the SpaceX IPO for the economy?
We'll have all those details shortly. And it'll be close to $20 billion a year, according to reports. Launch of rockets is the other 40% of the business, $5 billion in 2024, according to reports. Total revenue, $20.25, $15 to $16 billion, with $8 billion in profit, according to Reuters. So let's stop there, and we're going to talk about all the other IPOs that could be coming.
I think people really want to know, and you may have mentioned this on an earlier episode, what are the chances that Tesla, if this IPO goes well, that Tesla and SpaceX could wind up being the same company we saw there collaborating on a fab? 100% is what you're putting it on? Okay.
Okay, sorry.
Chapter 3: What are the expected trends in IPOs for 2026?
Let me be clear. 99.999%. Okay.
What will that mean if those two companies or when those two companies merge?
One of the great... things that happened in my career was there was a point where, you know, how like you grind at a level and then, you know, you just get exposed to things at a different level. And then you grind for years and you get exposed to things at yet another level. In one of those steps, I was very fortunate to be introduced by Thomas Lafont, actually, to the head of Wachtell Lipton.
There's a law firm. Law firm. And his name is Ed Herlihy. And he said, this is the most important, well-known, well-run, powerful law firm in America. Then I looked at the transactions and they're just in the middle of everything. And now, you know, my lawyer, Raj Narayan, who does everything for me, one of the senior partners at Wachtell, I can attest are incredible.
And they said to me in the middle of all of this
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Chapter 4: How is the Iran War affecting global economies and supply chains?
stuff when I was doing a bunch of deals. They said, just get ready to pay a tax. And I said, what does that mean? They said, the way that the American capital markets are set up is both that you can be incredibly creative and do incredible things. But, and we talked about this a little bit last week, there's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop and get paid no matter what.
You see this in all IPOs. Shareholder lawsuits abound, and they try to create a class out of it. And the reason they do that is that there's D&O insurance that then will pay out some number of millions of dollars. The attorneys take 40% or 50%, and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks.
You saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued Elon's comp package at Tesla and won. And what was that really? That was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by exploiting a scene. It was a shakedown.
Chapter 5: What are the challenges of the US's involvement in Iran?
Why am I bringing this up? If you take the Raj and Ed example of this, this SpaceX IPO is going to set up a couple of things. The first is there's going to be the natural noise in the market, and Elon will have to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things. But the most important positive thing that will happen from the IPO is a validated external mark to market valuation of SpaceX.
And the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market assessment of the value of Tesla. And this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses. And I think that that's what Elon really needs. It'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective. It'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non-issue.
Because again, nobody talks about Zuck or Satya or Sundar or Jensen allocating time across various projects inside of Meta or Google or Microsoft or NVIDIA, nor should they really make this claim from Elon because as you're seeing, there's actually an enormous overlap and commonality to the various things that he is doing. He's building the robots, but they're used inside of SpaceX.
He's building a Terafab, they're used inside of Tesla. He's building XAI, they're used across both. So I think we need to do this.
Chapter 6: What are the potential impacts of quantum computing on cryptocurrencies?
It'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody that says, hey, he set a valuation out of thin air. But dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge.
And it speaks to the singularity that's going on right now. You know, you had a car company, you had a space company. Okay, that was a pretty, how do those two things overlap? And it's like AI, data centers in space, where do you get chips from? And then actually going to raw materials inside of one factory,
Going out the other and having discussed it with Elon many times, what he learned, you know, at Tesla or SpaceX about advanced materials informed different products at the different companies. And now you just, you'll have all of that in one place. And then you think about the brain trust that he built at those two companies, plus Boring Company, plus Neuralink.
if they're all in there, all this cross-disciplinary learning is going to compound and compound and compound. Elon knows more about factories than probably anybody. There's some people in China who have... Foxconn knows a lot about factories.
There are some people who know as much or probably even a little bit more about some aspects of it, but that's a true advantage of bringing those two teams together. And you saw it. People would go from one company to the other. Freeburg, my question for you... very acutely with your NASA hat.
And, you know, your your background today is 20 years ago, he started trying to get to space with SpaceX. And here we go, there's more rockets going off in a month now than there are days in the month for the for the entire country. And he's got rockets going up every two or three days, you can just basically hop on a SpaceX flight and get to space. Maybe you could just use
your vision there to tell the audience, what could things look like in another 20 years if SpaceX continues at this cadence or even, you know, goes faster because of AI?
Well, this week's a pretty important milestone for that point because we just launched Artemis II yesterday, which is man's returning to the moon. So the United States shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board. They're going to do an orbit around the Earth, head to the moon, come back around and come back to Earth in anticipation of landing on the moon in about two years.
And getting to the moon, I think, is going to be very important, not just because there's this important social milestone and race happening right now with China, but I think the moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity.
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Chapter 7: How could space exploration become a new industrial frontier?
And that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by robotics. So I think that there's this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in robotics with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon. So Tesla, I think 20 years from now is actually a more interesting story, whether they're the same independent company or the same company.
I think we're going to look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that Tesla started out as an electric car company. 100%. Ended up becoming an autonomous car company. And the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution.
And the robotics revolution, even if the socialists ban robotics on Earth and tell us no robots allowed, they're taking all the jobs, you could ship all those robots to the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new manufacturing frontier for... for our civilization, for humanity. That frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back.
You could manufacture semiconductors on the moon. All that's missing is the robots. So moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to build themselves on the moon is kind of the first phase of this transition, you know, asking about 20 years from now. And then the next phase is building this all out.
So look, I mean, I think that this may not be, and it certainly won't be limited to just SpaceX, but SpaceX is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the railroads. You know, what the railroads were to the West and to the frontier in the West, you know, in the last generation, SpaceX will be to the moon and ultimately to Mars
And there's going to be an extraordinary abundance of production that's going to come out of the moon. The moon has everything, by the way. And I'll say one more thing about SpaceX. SpaceX has also created, and this is going to be a big part of the valuation analysis that many are doing, they've created a backup to the internet.
You know, the internet is fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network and the connectivity amongst all those nodes. And that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable. So in...
space with the number of satellites going up with Starlink and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX has largely built a backup internet.
And that backup internet can coincide with the Earth's internet, but it creates this extraterrestrial communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about, hey, if governments collapse, if there's civilizational upheaval, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, this becomes, I think, a fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's going to exist in parallel.
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Chapter 8: What role does fertilizer play in global food security?
I love it. Whoever implements the red light district in space is going to become a trillionaire.
oh wow that's yeah with the robotics and the uh pleasure droids replicants oh man it could get crazy all right well let's just hope you're we're not the donner party on the way there um
Don't worry, you'll be safely on the ground schlepping syndicates. You'll be fine.
I'll tell you something. Thank you. Shout out to syndicate.com for applying to join me.
And great companies. Listen, I'm still working. You guys might be retired, but I'm in the game.
I'm in the arena trying things, Chamath. I'm selling enterprise software every day. That's what I do.
I mean, he literally, Chamath said, hey, Jacob, can we wrap this up real quick? Because I got to get on a sales call. I got a discovery call. Listen, I like the fact that we're all working. We're working into our 50s. I love it. Hey, 2026 could be an all-time record for IPOs. Looks like it will be. Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks.
I mean, these are all nine and possibly 10-figure IPOs in terms of the valuations. Longtail of other companies, Stripe, Cerebrus, Canva. Discord, lots of people waiting. Here's your polymarket. SpaceX, 94%, obviously. That looks like it's, we just talked about that for 20 minutes. Anthropic, 41%. People were saying 70% in February. OpenAI, 38%. Databricks, 32%.
People are wondering what could derail this. Obviously, we have a very pro-business group of people in Washington, D.C., but you have potentially this Iran war, and we'll talk about that later in the program, could potentially push us back if, God forbid, it was to spiral or there was a recession, maybe the Democrats. you know, taking control of Congress, Senate, et cetera.
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