Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Sounds potentially good.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
It's a good question because I don't know that folks haven't been doing that as much.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
I mean, we definitely have lots of great ideas coming along.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Everyone seems to want to run their experiment at maximum scale, but I think that's a human problem.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Yeah, the one thing it doesn't speed up is, like, experiments at the largest scale, because you still end up doing, like, these n equals 1 experiments, and they're really just try to put a bunch of really brilliant people in the room and have them stare at the thing, figure out why this is working, why this is not working.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Yes, yes, we're counting on you.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Yeah, we don't need new hardware for that.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
But I mean, we'll take it.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Yeah.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Yeah, exactly.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
One of the big areas of improvement, I think, in the near future is this entrance time compute, like applying more compute
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
you know, at inference time.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
And I guess the way I'd like to describe it is that, you know, like even some giant language model, you know, even if you're doing, say, a trillion operations per token, which is
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
you know, more than most people are doing these days.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
You know, operations cost something like $10 to the negative $18.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
And so you're getting like a million tokens to the dollar, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
So, I mean, compare that to like a relatively cheap pastime.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Like you go out and you buy a paper book and read it, you're paying like 10,000 tokens to the dollar.
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
So it's so like talking to a language model could be like, you know, is like...
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
100 times cheaper than reading a paperback.