Jeff Horing

We looked at a genetic AI company in that market.

And if Epic sells $10 million a year on average in the hospital market,

and you're selling half a million dollars a year in the market, so 20 times your size on average selling price, pretty hard to imagine that you're going to be as big as Epic.

You can frame it and say, best case, I'm probably 120th.

This Epic is a dominant player, rare that anyone gets more market share than they do in a given sector.

Best case is I'm probably 120th the size of Epic.

So that's kind of a good framing of TAM in my mind, as opposed to the, how many customers are there?

Can I multiply by this?

And this sort of top-down approach is riddled with

errors in thought whereas if you look at what's my selling price how does it compare so you want to see that average selling price and then compare it to companies that are targeting the same number of customer universe and that gives you at least a ballpark you obviously want to look at the landscape of competitors and say well what market share am i realistically going to have

The hidden data point for me, especially for early companies I've been pushing on, and this is where AI is a pretty neat idea, is what's the time to value?

So when you think of a customer making a decision, installing SAP versus using OpenAI, one is I literally point my cursor to a webpage and I'm getting value immediately.

And the other could be a three-year, very expensive journey to change my organization to get it up and live and productive.

SAP has massive value to that customer base, but it's a very long time to implement.

And that's going to inherently slow down, realistically, how fast you can grow both your own ability to succeed with those customers, but also just the decision-making around those complex decisions.

Obviously, phenomenal CEOs...

are always the dream.

I listen to the podcast.

I'm like, wow, people are really a lot smarter than I am because I sometimes write that story after the fact.

I certainly have plenty of phenomenal CEOs that were rejected by a lot of other firms.