Jeff Rosenberg

This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg.

Yeah, I think the big takeaway on the policy side was the removal of the balance of risks from the labor market assessment.

He got asked that question.

I think the most interesting interchange was in the very first question, where he very clearly laid out he wasn't going to address the politics side and got into the substance on the change of the balance of risks.

And I think from the economic perspective, that was the most interesting thing in acknowledging that they moved away from both sides of of the inflation and the labor market tension that was there previously.

And that's an upgrade to the assessment.

I think the near term implication is the bond market has the pricing right that, you know, in the next six months, there's really no inflation.

real movement towards a cut.

Obviously, it depends on the data and everything in terms of the expectations for the FOMC is going to be in the back half of the year.

Yeah, that's a really important point, Tom.

And it came up a little bit in the press conference.

You just had to, like, listen for it.

It's a point I made often, you know, in these discussions that, you know, where is the surprise coming from?

It's coming from the consumption side.

It's being supported by the wealth effect.

And the wealth effect is being supported by all of those earnings and that AI story.

So, you know, we talk a lot about the macroeconomic perspective here.

But it's really about the micro.

And the micro is the AI and the technology story, the concentration.

And it's flowing through from the micro to the macro through the wealth effect.