Jeff Walton

We've got very advanced analytics behind the scenes.

We've got, you know, we're leveraging the best AI tools to understand what our balance sheet looks like.

And I think it's helpful to think about like the risk profile of downside, right?

And we're thinking about our ability to pay that dividend into perpetuity.

So we look at a few things.

One, we're underwriting the structural long-term trajectory of Bitcoin.

Okay.

One way to look at the structural long-term trajectory of Bitcoin is to look at the 200-week moving average.

The 200 week moving average, which is a four year average effectively thinking about like Bitcoin halving cycles.

I think that's a pretty good proxy for looking at structural bids.

Every single return period in Bitcoin's 200-week moving average is positive.

There's never been a negative day on the 200-week moving average.

Not to say it couldn't happen, but there's never been one.

The 200-week moving average itself is compounding at 30% across every single return period that you look at.

So the 200-week moving average itself is compounding at 30%.

Now, looking at price history relative to the 200-week moving average is also pretty illuminating.

So you can look at how many days in Bitcoin's history has Bitcoin traded below the 200-week moving average and how deep below the 200-week moving average did it go.

Now, back in 2022, there was a period of time, there were about 60 days where Bitcoin closed below the 200-week moving average.

The lowest that it closed below the 200-week moving average is around 30%.

And so...