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Jeremiah

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1265 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

Back to the text.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

From our point of view, what's important is that this doesn't look like, lol, it just sees that the last token was re and there's a 12.27% chance of a line break following re.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

Next token prediction created this system, but the system itself can involve arbitrary choices about how to represent and manipulate data.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

Human neuron interpretability is even harder than AI neuron interpretability, but probably your thoughts involve something at least as weird as helical manifolds in 6D spaces.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

I searched the literature for the closest human equivalent to Claude's weird helical manifolds and was able to find one team talking about how the entorhinal cells in the hippocampus, which help you track locations in 2D space, use, quote, high-dimensional toroidal attractor manifolds, end quote.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

You never think about these, and if Claude is conscious, it doesn't think about its helices either.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

Or, to frame it in a less controversial way, you couldn't discover these helices by asking Claude in the chat window to tell you about them.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

These are just the sorts of strange hacks that next-token or next-sense-dartum prediction algorithms discover to encode complicated concepts onto physical computational substrate.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

4.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

So my answer to the just a next token predictor, just a bag of words, just a stochastic parrot literature is that this confuses levels of optimization.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

Here's the diagram from before again.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

The most compelling analogy?

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

This is like expecting humans to be just survival and reproduction machines, because survival and reproduction were the optimization criteria in our evolutionary history.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

There is, of course, some sense in which we are just survival and reproduction machines.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

We don't have any faculties that can't be explained through their effects on survival and reproduction.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

But this doesn't mean we don't really think or don't really understand because we're really just trying to have sex when we work on a math problem.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

This simple analogy is slightly off, because it's confusing two optimization levels.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

The outer optimization level, in humans, evolution optimizing for reproduction, in AI's, companies optimizing for profit, with the inner optimization level, in humans, next-sense-dartum prediction, in AI's, next-token prediction.

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

But the stochastic parrot people probably haven't gotten to the point where they learn that humans are next-sense-dartum predictors,

Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

so the evolution-slash-reproduction one above might make a better didactic tool.