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John Arnold

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
791 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And so the cost to develop a solar panel keeps falling.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

Now, a solar panel doesn't get you what you want.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

You want electrons...

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

at the location that load is at.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And so there's a lot of steps to go from a solar panel to electrons in the right location.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

Some of those are inflationary.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

The panel itself is deflationary, but it requires land, it requires labor, it requires access to transmission.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

It requires access to capital and the cost of capital, which was falling for a long time and has now been increasing for me over the past five years.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

People love to talk about the cost of a solar panel.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And usually whenever you see these graphs, it's what's the cost of the panel?

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And it's just kind of from top left to bottom right.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

Meanwhile, the cost of a PPA, a power purchase agreement, for solar is well off the lows.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

Lows happened around 2020.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

The cost, again, of delivered electrons from solar is probably 50% plus more expensive than they were at the cheapest point in 2020.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And it's because the panel itself, again, becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of the total cost of the system.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

Any advantage, continued technological improvements or manufacturing improvements are just getting at a smaller and smaller percentage of the total cost.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And meanwhile, the inflationary aspects of the system become a bigger and bigger percentage of total cost.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

So that being said, there's a lot of ideas about how to bring load closer to where the solar is being generated.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And can you use some type of automation, factory automation or robotics to build the plant better, the solar field better?

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

better and cheaper way that requires less labor.