John Bickley

Yeah, normally the way a bubble works is that the price of something starts going up and it keeps on going up and eventually people get so excited by the rise in price that they experience FOMO, fear of missing out, and they start piling in and you get a lot of action as the price goes up.

But houses have become so unaffordable that the market is kind of frozen, even though prices are just insanely high. And a normal person, especially a normal young person, cannot afford to buy a house in the United States right now. And the median age of homebuyers now is in the 50s. It used to be 30 or so, 30, 35-year-olds. And now the only people who can afford to buy a house

But houses have become so unaffordable that the market is kind of frozen, even though prices are just insanely high. And a normal person, especially a normal young person, cannot afford to buy a house in the United States right now. And the median age of homebuyers now is in the 50s. It used to be 30 or so, 30, 35-year-olds. And now the only people who can afford to buy a house

are basically people who are at their peak of their lifetimes of earning and have a lot of money saved so you've got a market where even though prices are at an all-time high the amount of deals being done the amount of homes being bought are at 1990s levels even though we had 50 million fewer people in the 1990s that's the level of home buying and selling that's going on right now

are basically people who are at their peak of their lifetimes of earning and have a lot of money saved so you've got a market where even though prices are at an all-time high the amount of deals being done the amount of homes being bought are at 1990s levels even though we had 50 million fewer people in the 1990s that's the level of home buying and selling that's going on right now

Well, kind of that explains what's happening. But the reason it happened is inflation. We basically debased the currency. That means the price of things when measured in dollars goes up. And houses are one of the financial assets, because you use debt to buy a house, which makes it a financial asset. So house prices have gone up faster than the salaries of most people have gone up.

Well, kind of that explains what's happening. But the reason it happened is inflation. We basically debased the currency. That means the price of things when measured in dollars goes up. And houses are one of the financial assets, because you use debt to buy a house, which makes it a financial asset. So house prices have gone up faster than the salaries of most people have gone up.

So houses get more and more unaffordable with time. And that's not a function of houses changing in any fundamental way. It's the value of the currency going down. And what this does is it benefits the people who were there at the start of the inflation, basically baby boomers, my generation. We own a lot of the financial assets.

So houses get more and more unaffordable with time. And that's not a function of houses changing in any fundamental way. It's the value of the currency going down. And what this does is it benefits the people who were there at the start of the inflation, basically baby boomers, my generation. We own a lot of the financial assets.

We own the houses, we own the stocks, and we own the gold, and all of those things are going up dramatically. So we're getting richer. While the younger generations are being impoverished because they can't even afford the basics of adulthood right now.

We own the houses, we own the stocks, and we own the gold, and all of those things are going up dramatically. So we're getting richer. While the younger generations are being impoverished because they can't even afford the basics of adulthood right now.

You know, if you're a 30 year old and you want to start a family and buy a starter house, good luck unless you make a quarter million dollars a year, you know, and very few people at the age of 30 do that now. So we have basically screwed over younger generations while enriching the already rich. And that's what inflation does. And that's why it's so insidious.

You know, if you're a 30 year old and you want to start a family and buy a starter house, good luck unless you make a quarter million dollars a year, you know, and very few people at the age of 30 do that now. So we have basically screwed over younger generations while enriching the already rich. And that's what inflation does. And that's why it's so insidious.

Now, housing market is a perfect example of that. So where we go from here, though, I think is the really interesting part of the story, because people are starting to put their houses on the market now. but they're doing it at current prices, which means nobody can buy them. So inventory of homes for sale is starting to pile up in a lot of formerly hot markets like Texas and Florida.

Now, housing market is a perfect example of that. So where we go from here, though, I think is the really interesting part of the story, because people are starting to put their houses on the market now. but they're doing it at current prices, which means nobody can buy them. So inventory of homes for sale is starting to pile up in a lot of formerly hot markets like Texas and Florida.

You're seeing a lot of people try to sell their houses, but there are no buyers. And so what happens then normally is that the people who are trying to sell their houses, some of them pull the house off the market in disgust and others cut their prices.

You're seeing a lot of people try to sell their houses, but there are no buyers. And so what happens then normally is that the people who are trying to sell their houses, some of them pull the house off the market in disgust and others cut their prices.

And this sets off a panic in which people who really need to sell their houses basically have to sell them for whatever they can get for them and prices plunge. And so we're headed for a time like that. As inventory builds up dramatically in a lot of formerly hot markets and people get ready to start panicking.

And this sets off a panic in which people who really need to sell their houses basically have to sell them for whatever they can get for them and prices plunge. And so we're headed for a time like that. As inventory builds up dramatically in a lot of formerly hot markets and people get ready to start panicking.

Yeah, delisting rates are starting to climb. And that's a sign that we're topping now, that all the things that happen normally at a top are beginning to happen. More listings coming on the market, more delistings as people can't sell their houses. Oh, and there are also a lot of price cuts. You go to Zillow and you'll notice that a lot of houses have already been reduced.