John Bickley

Yeah, delisting rates are starting to climb. And that's a sign that we're topping now, that all the things that happen normally at a top are beginning to happen. More listings coming on the market, more delistings as people can't sell their houses. Oh, and there are also a lot of price cuts. You go to Zillow and you'll notice that a lot of houses have already been reduced.

Well, there's just been a lot of action in Florida and Texas and a few other states. Those are the places that people have been moving to and where a lot of houses have been built in response. You know, there's a tremendous number of new houses in the process of being built there right now.

Well, there's just been a lot of action in Florida and Texas and a few other states. Those are the places that people have been moving to and where a lot of houses have been built in response. You know, there's a tremendous number of new houses in the process of being built there right now.

So, in other words, the bubble markets, the really hot markets, are the ones that break first and where the real action is.

So, in other words, the bubble markets, the really hot markets, are the ones that break first and where the real action is.

Yeah, it's slowing, but it hasn't stopped yet. People are still moving to states that they perceive as better run, and they're moving out of states that they think are badly run. That's continuing, but it's slowing down because nobody can afford to buy the houses in the hot markets that they're moving to now. For the past...

Yeah, it's slowing, but it hasn't stopped yet. People are still moving to states that they perceive as better run, and they're moving out of states that they think are badly run. That's continuing, but it's slowing down because nobody can afford to buy the houses in the hot markets that they're moving to now. For the past...

20 or 30 years, if you sell your house in California, you could pretty much go anywhere and buy a really nice house. But now, home prices are starting to equalize. They're going up. Even in, well, Nashville, for instance, is a super hot market in Tennessee. And a lot of other Tennessee cities are starting to boom. And that always leads to higher prices.

20 or 30 years, if you sell your house in California, you could pretty much go anywhere and buy a really nice house. But now, home prices are starting to equalize. They're going up. Even in, well, Nashville, for instance, is a super hot market in Tennessee. And a lot of other Tennessee cities are starting to boom. And that always leads to higher prices.

And in Florida and Texas, a lot of the formerly affordable neighborhoods aren't affordable anymore. So it's harder and harder to move to these places. Fewer and fewer people are doing it. And again, that's topping behavior. You know, once we reach the point where that rolls over and people actually start leaving the formerly hot states, that's when the real estate market really tanks.

And in Florida and Texas, a lot of the formerly affordable neighborhoods aren't affordable anymore. So it's harder and harder to move to these places. Fewer and fewer people are doing it. And again, that's topping behavior. You know, once we reach the point where that rolls over and people actually start leaving the formerly hot states, that's when the real estate market really tanks.

Yeah, Austin has basically been the hottest city in the country for the past decade or so. But inevitably, the pendulum swings too far. And Austin is now unaffordably expensive. And the prices of houses are starting to go down there. I don't have the exact number, but I think it's something like 15% from the peak. Prices are down in Austin.

Yeah, Austin has basically been the hottest city in the country for the past decade or so. But inevitably, the pendulum swings too far. And Austin is now unaffordably expensive. And the prices of houses are starting to go down there. I don't have the exact number, but I think it's something like 15% from the peak. Prices are down in Austin.

And there's an old saying that in a bull market, prices go up on the escalator. and in a bear market, they go down in an elevator. In other words, they go straight down when they start to fall. We're heading for that in a lot of hot real estate markets where prices just start to gap down. Austin is definitely one of those places.

And there's an old saying that in a bull market, prices go up on the escalator. and in a bear market, they go down in an elevator. In other words, they go straight down when they start to fall. We're heading for that in a lot of hot real estate markets where prices just start to gap down. Austin is definitely one of those places.

Some places, for instance, Ohio, prices there just aren't that expensive. It's not going to plunge there, but in a lot of other places where Home prices are wildly unaffordable. They're going to tank. 30%, 40%, 50% declines are going to seem normal at some point in the next couple of years.

Some places, for instance, Ohio, prices there just aren't that expensive. It's not going to plunge there, but in a lot of other places where Home prices are wildly unaffordable. They're going to tank. 30%, 40%, 50% declines are going to seem normal at some point in the next couple of years.

Well, as you mentioned, there are other costs of homeownership that have really spiked as part of the whole inflation thing. You know, the cost of homeowners insurance is spiking and home maintenance is much more expensive than it used to be. And taxes are going up. Property taxes are going up in line with home prices.

Well, as you mentioned, there are other costs of homeownership that have really spiked as part of the whole inflation thing. You know, the cost of homeowners insurance is spiking and home maintenance is much more expensive than it used to be. And taxes are going up. Property taxes are going up in line with home prices.

So owning a home is not only expensive because you have a high mortgage rate and the price was very high, but you've got insurance and taxes that are much higher than they used to be. So first of all, there's a lot of people who are priced out of buying a house. They can't do it. And then there are a lot of people who own houses but can't afford to keep those houses.