Jon Grauman
speaker
142 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Jon Grauman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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They have height limitations because if you exceed a certain height, it can't fit in the storage container that it needs to ship across the country, across the world. It can't fit under a freeway overpass, right? These are homes that we're not gonna see going up Coldwater Canyon or Benedict Canyon because they just don't fit there. But in other parts of,
even LA and certainly the country, there's a real place for this. And you can fabricate them at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time. So there are real big government contracts out there that I think a lot of developers are trying to figure out how do I crack the code in modular development to position themselves for those contracts and to be able to actually fix the housing crisis.
Some, some of it's made in China, some of it's made in other parts of, let's say, Asia. There are several factories in the United States. My understanding, and I say that very clearly so that like, please fact check this, but like what I've heard is that they're on average roughly about 30% more than if you're shipping it from, let's say, Asia.
Are they nice?
100%.
Yeah. If you want to go to Ann Sachs and buy your tile at $30 a square foot or you want to go to Home Depot and buy it at $3 a square foot, what you make of it is entirely up to you. But essentially, it's just a shell.
Yep.
You know, I think initially it may just have been a reaction to high prices. But that said, I think that it's not a short term thing. I think that these are new evolving business models that are going to create more access and affordability for people. And it's part of a new ecosystem that we're entering into.
Much like the work from home model was in reaction to COVID, it's clearly something that's here to stay. So I think that between what's happening just within the real estate industry alone, what's happening within the affordability and inventory crisis, this industry is ripe for disruption.
There are going to be some major moves made in the next 12 to 24 months that are really going to flip this industry on its head. And these are some of the models that are going to play a part in that.
Yeah, I think it will be.
Yeah, I'll give you a more real-world example. I personally own a home in Napa, which is my happy place, that I have a one-eighth fractional ownership in because that gives me six weeks of use out of the year. I couldn't use it more than six weeks if I wanted to. I don't have that much time. But... It's a home that I'll just say I wouldn't have been able to afford on my own.
But by virtue of having this fractional ownership, I'm able to have the use and enjoyment of this really amazing estate up there. And I think you'll see more models like that in the future.
Sure, yes, a fancier timeshare. Different versions of fractional ownership that allow more accessibility to people.
You should be legitimately scared. This is the greatest existential threat to real estate. It's not interest rates. It's not supply and demand. It's climate change. Climate change is the greatest threat to real estate, period, full stop, particularly in the coastal markets that are the luxury markets and the most expensive markets, of course.
I mean, obviously, you look at just the tragedies that happened in Florida this year, which happen every year, by the way. How long is it before one of those storms comes sweeping through Miami? Miami has been the biggest winner in the last three years of real estate in the United States. So much wealth has flocked down there.
What happens when, not if, when one of those storms comes through the center of Miami and demolishes that real estate? Like, it's...
That's exactly right. That's exactly. They're no longer once in a lifetime. And that's just, again, unfortunately, sadly, that's the new world that we live in. But the ability to get insurance as it relates to that, which is a requirement of a loan if you're getting a mortgage, is going to be a major factor. And at some point, I have to imagine,
Not to suggest that the government has all the answers because they certainly don't. I imagine there's going to have to be more government intervention, government subsidies, more things like California Fair Plan here in California, which have their limitations and ceilings on their coverage.
But there's going to have to be more things like that in the future because insurance companies that are pulling out of these markets are creating a greater monopoly for the ones that are still staying.
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