Jon Quast

There's also that risk, mentioning Elon Musk, that you're betting on his future vision.

He's not only completely in control, he's also in charge of Tesla.

He's also in charge of Neuralink.

He's also in charge of the Boring Company.

That's still a thing.

There's a lot of things that occupy his time and attention.

And that is a risk, especially as this business gets bigger and focuses more on AI and all these other adjacent opportunities at the same time.

Yeah, I would take claims about all those market opportunities, like the $28.5 trillion figure that we've heard a couple of times here with a big grain of salt, to put it mildly.

This is going to be a very expensive stock from the get-go.

I would not be surprised if it was seriously volatile after the IPO.

It's forecast to be a very oversubscribed IPO.

There's a lot of hype surrounding it.

There's going to be a lot of shares moving all about.

Retail investors are getting a big piece of it relative to other IPOs.

Historically speaking, seven of the 10 largest IPOs in US history underperformed the S&P 500 in their first year, which kind of goes along with what John was saying, that these tend to be very hyped, and in a lot of cases, because they're very hyped, they tend to be overvalued at first.

So I'm personally not a buyer, at least right away.

I likely won't own this in the foreseeable future unless the value comes down to something I would consider a little bit more palatable.

But having said that, there are some things that could make me reassess.

For example, if the Starship success creates a clearer path to profitability in the space business, or if XAI started to be a serious competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, which I don't think it's at that level today, it could cause me to take a little bit of a closer look.

But even then, not likely at a $2 trillion valuation.