Jon Quast

Somehow you had a crystal ball.

You predicted that.

And let's just say that there's another person out there who is the worst possible trader possible.

They picked the top of the market for a single day of that year and invested all their money on that one.

Well, if you were the best, you wound up with $5.6 million.

If you were the worst, you still had 4.2 million.

So you picked the best day of the year for 40 some years.

You picked the worst day of the year for 40 some years.

So if you time things perfectly, you did about 10% better than if you just invested everything on January 1st.

And if you time things terribly, you did about 18% worse.

So I'd ask myself two questions here.

Am I the best?

If not, is that 10% upside worth the downside risk of trying to wait for that dip?

I don't think so.

I think it's better to get invested.

However, I think the hybrid approach that you're talking about, Matt, is still a really good idea.

So maybe some people would decide, I'm going to invest 80% or 90% of my money on a schedule, and I'm going to set aside 10% to 20%.

in case the market drops, in case I want to be opportunistic.

That way you do get that money working for you sooner.

You're not dramatically, statistically altering your long-term performance, but you still do have that cash on hand to take advantage of things as things drop.