Jon Quast

That's because there's a disconnect between where the crude is and where the refineries are, and what refineries are where.

Technically, there is a global surplus of crude, even with what's going on.

If you look at the embargo crude, the ability outside of straight-forward moves to produce, but there isn't the capacity to refine.

And at the same time, a lot of those products are, you know, demand is inelastic because we have to drive to work.

But more importantly,

the military is using a lot of jet fuel and a lot of diesel right now.

The bigger issues right now, and this is how it reverberates through the economy, we could go beyond that.

Fertilizer has already come up.

We are lucky here because the North American fertilizer season is basically

It had already been booked.

It's already through the street.

We have time there, but that implies that this is going to ripple through for years and not just one growing season because next season's fertilizer is stuck.

How about chip manufacturing?

Even semiconductors, guys.

Helium and sulfuric acid, two very important parts of the chip making process.

20-30% or more of production comes through the Gulf.

I don't think any of us really have our heads around just kind of the disruptions that have already occurred.

And again, I hate to be such a doomsday person giving back to this, but all of this is assuming that it just all ends today.

How long would it take to rebuild?

I haven't checked in the last 10 minutes, but I have seen no sign that it is ending today.