The Reality of Investing in 2026
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How is the war in Iran affecting oil prices and the market?
Oil is up, the market's down, so where do we go from here? Motley Fool Money starts now.
Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I'm Travis Hoyum, joined today by Lou Whiteman and John Quast. And guys, we've got to talk about the... elephant in the room. That's what's going on in Iran. It's causing a huge increase in oil prices. It's causing the market to decline. This could impact the economy for years to come. So we're going to try to pull this apart as much as we can, bring a little bit of historical context to what we're seeing in the market, how investors should be thinking about this. But let's start with the near-term impact, because I think that's probably the easiest, Lou, to get our heads around
As we look at, in particular, energy, about 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That's getting a lot of the attention in the market. Qatar's LNG assets have been hit. They say that that could take years to actually bring back online. When you look at over the next one to three months, let's say, what are you looking at in energy markets, in the market overall, in the economy? Where is your head going to sort of try to process this?
Yeah, where does your head go, right? It's a great question. The hard thing about this is that there are two independent timelines. And the second timeline is the one that's really scary. Destruction is immediate. Rebuilding takes time. So the work of one second's explosion can take, if we're lucky, months. So we have both the timeline of the immediate, when will this conflict end, and the timeline of the looking forward, when are we back to normal? Those are separate things.
What are the potential safe havens for investors during market turmoil?
We can't just say, all right, if the conflict ends next week, we're back to normal next week. In the case of the LNG assets, what did they say? Three to five years. Right. before we're back to normal. And that assumes no more destruction, which I don't know if we can assume that. The longer we're in the destruction phase, the more that timeline exponentially goes out on the rebuilding phase. I don't think we can look in terms of months here. I think we are already at a point where we are looking as a matter of years before things are back to normal. And that's really depressing. I don't think I have to say that, but that really creates challenges for the global economy.
John, it seems like there's some band-aids that we can put on this. We talked about releasing some of the oil in the U.S. oil reserve. In the past, you would see a country like Saudi Arabia say, hey, you know what? We'll step up. We'll provide a little bit more oil. It seems like there's a little less slack there for them to be able to do that. So how do you think about that supply chain? Because that's where things – we learned during COVID. Things get really complicated really quickly.
Yeah.
Yes, supply chain does get really complicated very quickly. I heard one person talk about this like this. There could be a supply issue, and that's kind of an easy thing, but we're actually dealing with a supply chain issue, and that's where it gets complicated. a whole lot more complicated very quickly. Take OPEC, for example. It regularly changes the supply of oil on the market. It goes both up and down in how much oil it's producing and shipping out.
Which stocks are making the final four in the current market?
That's a supply issue. But right now, we're talking about the LNG facility in Qatar, that's a supply chain issue that takes forever. Like you mentioned, we're talking about some potential ways to mitigate this, but it's pretty difficult. You look at the oil reserves. We've talked about that on a previous show. It really doesn't do a whole lot for prices because of how small that is in relation to daily consumption. The Trump administration right now is talking about waiving the Jones Act, or maybe it officially did waive the Jones Act for 60 days. This is something that is hoped to mitigate oil prices because it basically loosens restrictions on U.S. ports, but some are already doing some
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How is the war in Iran affecting oil prices and the market?
0:05–2:14
2
What are the potential safe havens for investors during market turmoil?
2:14–3:49
3
Which stocks are making the final four in the current market?
3:49–6:13
4
What historical context can we learn from past oil crises?
6:13–8:46
5
How do supply chain issues impact the economy and stock market?
8:46–10:42
6
What should investors consider when facing economic uncertainty?
10:42–13:10
7
How are companies like Meta adjusting their strategies in the current climate?
13:10–15:20
8
What stocks are on the radar for potential investment opportunities?
15:20–39:20