Jonathan Swan

Peter Navarro thinks that Trump's plan of initiating a global trade war was well thought through and that it would create the stipulated goal of a golden age of reshored heavy industry American manufacturing.

Peter Navarro thinks that Trump's plan of initiating a global trade war was well thought through and that it would create the stipulated goal of a golden age of reshored heavy industry American manufacturing.

All that's true, but they have clearly signaled that they are on a direction of retreat.

All that's true, but they have clearly signaled that they are on a direction of retreat.

He has blinked, and the only challenge for them is how to spin capitulation in a way that's not capitulation. They are desperate for an off-ramp with China, to the point where Trump is saying that he got a phone call from President Xi Jinping, which as far as we can tell is a phone call that doesn't exist and never happened. So they're desperate for off-ramps, and Charlie's right.

He has blinked, and the only challenge for them is how to spin capitulation in a way that's not capitulation. They are desperate for an off-ramp with China, to the point where Trump is saying that he got a phone call from President Xi Jinping, which as far as we can tell is a phone call that doesn't exist and never happened. So they're desperate for off-ramps, and Charlie's right.

That doesn't mean that the crisis is going to be unwound because so much damage has been done, so much uncertainty has been injected, but they're very clearly signaling that they realize that this went too far, and they're trying to figure out a way to get back to something closer to the status quo. Yeah.

That doesn't mean that the crisis is going to be unwound because so much damage has been done, so much uncertainty has been injected, but they're very clearly signaling that they realize that this went too far, and they're trying to figure out a way to get back to something closer to the status quo. Yeah.

I think a couple of things have happened. One is Trump thought he had more leverage than he actually does over Putin and Xi Jinping. I know from talking to people who've talked to Trump about this, that particularly with Xi Jinping, Trump had this idea that China would... basically fold, and that him and Xi Jinping would then get in the room together. On the tariff front.

I think a couple of things have happened. One is Trump thought he had more leverage than he actually does over Putin and Xi Jinping. I know from talking to people who've talked to Trump about this, that particularly with Xi Jinping, Trump had this idea that China would... basically fold, and that him and Xi Jinping would then get in the room together. On the tariff front.

Yeah, on the tariff front, and China has made clear that that's not going to happen. On Russia, when he came into office and in the transition, he had this notion that what he would say privately is that Putin is in real trouble, his economy is in real trouble, with additional sanctions or other financial measures, we can bring him to the table. again, looks like a miscalculation.

Yeah, on the tariff front, and China has made clear that that's not going to happen. On Russia, when he came into office and in the transition, he had this notion that what he would say privately is that Putin is in real trouble, his economy is in real trouble, with additional sanctions or other financial measures, we can bring him to the table. again, looks like a miscalculation.

Putin has built an economy based on wartime. You know, Russia is one of the most sanctioned countries on earth. And when you have leaders like Putin and Xi Jinping, who are dictators, who are not as responsive to public opinion or any of the institutional pressures that a president leading a liberal democracy would be,

Putin has built an economy based on wartime. You know, Russia is one of the most sanctioned countries on earth. And when you have leaders like Putin and Xi Jinping, who are dictators, who are not as responsive to public opinion or any of the institutional pressures that a president leading a liberal democracy would be,

there's a lot of pain that they can endure and put their populations through in order to achieve something that they portray as a great outcome. So I think in those two cases, it's a misunderstanding of leverage. More broadly, I think it's fascinating what's happening with foreign policy right now, because really what's happening in Europe...

there's a lot of pain that they can endure and put their populations through in order to achieve something that they portray as a great outcome. So I think in those two cases, it's a misunderstanding of leverage. More broadly, I think it's fascinating what's happening with foreign policy right now, because really what's happening in Europe...

in Asia as well, they are already operating on the basis that they can't rely on America. That this security construct that has existed since the end of World War II and that this world order that America built and this rules-based order, that that no longer exists.

in Asia as well, they are already operating on the basis that they can't rely on America. That this security construct that has existed since the end of World War II and that this world order that America built and this rules-based order, that that no longer exists.

And not my line, but somebody writing in the Financial Times said, you know, he is so obsessed with the problem of free riders that he forgets that it has been in America's interest to drive the bus. So regardless of whether you think what Donald Trump is doing is smart, prudent, foolish, whatever, there are going to be real costs to America not having that position of trust and centrality.

And not my line, but somebody writing in the Financial Times said, you know, he is so obsessed with the problem of free riders that he forgets that it has been in America's interest to drive the bus. So regardless of whether you think what Donald Trump is doing is smart, prudent, foolish, whatever, there are going to be real costs to America not having that position of trust and centrality.