Jonathan Swan

That's a separate issue from an even more extreme scenario, which is enough Republicans, which would be two-thirds of congressional Republicans, to override a presidential veto and push legislation that would restrain his tariff powers. That seems to me, at this point, almost inconceivable. You'd have to-

I guess you're about to say to me, sure, Michael, you need 60. You need 67. I don't see it right now. And then the House, it has to pass the House as well. And Mike Johnson has to decide to bring it up for a vote. A lot of things have to happen. And I just don't have any... that this is going to be a Congress that will step out and defy this president.

I guess you're about to say to me, sure, Michael, you need 60. You need 67. I don't see it right now. And then the House, it has to pass the House as well. And Mike Johnson has to decide to bring it up for a vote. A lot of things have to happen. And I just don't have any... that this is going to be a Congress that will step out and defy this president.

Things would have to get, I think, still substantially worse for that to happen. It's not impossible, but I think it's very unlikely.

Things would have to get, I think, still substantially worse for that to happen. It's not impossible, but I think it's very unlikely.

That's the best he can say publicly. But privately, most people on Trump's team understand that this is a very precarious situation and it can spiral out of control. And it's not for nothing that different investment banks are now altering their forecasts about recession. So they understand that this can spill over into the real economy pretty quickly and pretty profoundly.

That's the best he can say publicly. But privately, most people on Trump's team understand that this is a very precarious situation and it can spiral out of control. And it's not for nothing that different investment banks are now altering their forecasts about recession. So they understand that this can spill over into the real economy pretty quickly and pretty profoundly.

They're doing their best to contain the damage and to reassure people. I mean, you saw Scott Besant today come out with a whole lot of tweets about potential deal with Japan saying, you know, the president has authorized me to create a new golden age of trade with Japan and 50 countries have come looking for deals.

They're doing their best to contain the damage and to reassure people. I mean, you saw Scott Besant today come out with a whole lot of tweets about potential deal with Japan saying, you know, the president has authorized me to create a new golden age of trade with Japan and 50 countries have come looking for deals.

These are the sorts of messages that they're trying to reassure the markets that there is actually a method to this and a potential off-ramp from an escalating trade war.

These are the sorts of messages that they're trying to reassure the markets that there is actually a method to this and a potential off-ramp from an escalating trade war.

Right. I still, for one, having tried to cover this, don't have a sense at all that Trump is looking for an off-ramp. So I think it's what a number of his advisors are hoping that he goes for. But again, this is not clear to me at all that that's where he's going to end up.

Right. I still, for one, having tried to cover this, don't have a sense at all that Trump is looking for an off-ramp. So I think it's what a number of his advisors are hoping that he goes for. But again, this is not clear to me at all that that's where he's going to end up.

Yeah, and if you take him at his word, which is that he thinks this is necessary and that the U.S. economy needs this kind of quote-unquote medicine, the patient is very sick and it needs this medicine, and it's going to be rocky a little bit, but at the end of the tunnel is the rainbow.

Yeah, and if you take him at his word, which is that he thinks this is necessary and that the U.S. economy needs this kind of quote-unquote medicine, the patient is very sick and it needs this medicine, and it's going to be rocky a little bit, but at the end of the tunnel is the rainbow.

He's not saying any different privately than he's saying publicly, so you have to conclude that it's something that he's serious about. And that business community that you speak of, that Andrew was talking about,

He's not saying any different privately than he's saying publicly, so you have to conclude that it's something that he's serious about. And that business community that you speak of, that Andrew was talking about,

I've had innumerable conversations over the last three years with people in the business community and their consultants who sort of glibly and knowingly use cliches like, you've got to take Trump seriously, not literally. It's all just garbage. It's like, at this point, what are you even talking about?

I've had innumerable conversations over the last three years with people in the business community and their consultants who sort of glibly and knowingly use cliches like, you've got to take Trump seriously, not literally. It's all just garbage. It's like, at this point, what are you even talking about?

I understand why on this issue people were talking like that because all the evidence you had was what he did in his first term and it was much narrower. But at this point, you know, I think people are waking up to the idea that maybe we also need to take him quite literally with much of what he says. And quite literally, on tariffs.