Jonathan Swan

I think a secondary theory, which is empirically true, is he doesn't have... as many advisors around him who are making strong arguments to the contrary. In term one, he had Gary Cohn, Stephen Mnuchin, really some very anti-tariff figures around him on his economic team. And you don't have the same dynamic here.

There's not people in the room arguing staunchly against tariffs full stop as there were in the first term. I think the third one is even before he ran for president, other people always end up picking up the bill for whatever he does. Like, he's never actually had to absorb and bear the consequences of his actions. And I think that's on steroids now.

There's not people in the room arguing staunchly against tariffs full stop as there were in the first term. I think the third one is even before he ran for president, other people always end up picking up the bill for whatever he does. Like, he's never actually had to absorb and bear the consequences of his actions. And I think that's on steroids now.

Like, if you just think about it, like, not only did he get through January 6th, he managed to rebrand January 6th for much of the conservative movement. He got indicted in four jurisdictions, he was criminally convicted, and then he became the President of the United States again. So...

Like, if you just think about it, like, not only did he get through January 6th, he managed to rebrand January 6th for much of the conservative movement. He got indicted in four jurisdictions, he was criminally convicted, and then he became the President of the United States again. So...

If you think about the sort of dynamic we're all aware of, which is when famous people in business or politics feel like all the naysayers have told them this thing and they were all wrong and I was right, Trump might be the most extreme example we've ever seen of that. Hmm. situations where every smarty pants in the world says, you're insane, you're wrong.

If you think about the sort of dynamic we're all aware of, which is when famous people in business or politics feel like all the naysayers have told them this thing and they were all wrong and I was right, Trump might be the most extreme example we've ever seen of that. Hmm. situations where every smarty pants in the world says, you're insane, you're wrong.

And Trump in his mind says, no, actually, this is reality. And I'm going to bend you all to my will. And I think we're now seeing the most extreme experiment of that impulse with the economy and the stock market as the potential collateral. Yeah.

And Trump in his mind says, no, actually, this is reality. And I'm going to bend you all to my will. And I think we're now seeing the most extreme experiment of that impulse with the economy and the stock market as the potential collateral. Yeah.

Yeah, I think what's even more meaningful is, in my memory, until the last month or so, There's never been a time in the last decade where Donald Trump has been underwater in terms of public perception of his handling of the economy. So, like, one of the reasons why his approval rating is so stubbornly stable is because people have priced everything in with Trump pretty much.

Yeah, I think what's even more meaningful is, in my memory, until the last month or so, There's never been a time in the last decade where Donald Trump has been underwater in terms of public perception of his handling of the economy. So, like, one of the reasons why his approval rating is so stubbornly stable is because people have priced everything in with Trump pretty much.

You know, like, oh, I found out there's a new woman who's accused him of something. It's not like that changes their perception of Donald Trump. But the one thing he's always had... to his advantage is he is still seen, has been historically seen by a majority of Americans as a successful businessman and someone who can be trusted to handle the economy. That is changing.

You know, like, oh, I found out there's a new woman who's accused him of something. It's not like that changes their perception of Donald Trump. But the one thing he's always had... to his advantage is he is still seen, has been historically seen by a majority of Americans as a successful businessman and someone who can be trusted to handle the economy. That is changing.

That is changing in a small way, but it's meaningful. And I think that is the biggest risk that he faces. You know, I was talking to someone over the weekend about this. And they made the point to me that if this becomes a full-blown economic crisis, we will have had three major economic crises in the last 20 years. The global financial crisis, COVID, and potentially this.

That is changing in a small way, but it's meaningful. And I think that is the biggest risk that he faces. You know, I was talking to someone over the weekend about this. And they made the point to me that if this becomes a full-blown economic crisis, we will have had three major economic crises in the last 20 years. The global financial crisis, COVID, and potentially this.

But of the three of them, you almost couldn't conceive of a crisis that is more directly attributable to one person. Right. As Andrew just told us. Yeah. The political risk here is, I think, quite profound because it is the one issue that actually he's been really, really strong on. And this could actually damage perceptions of him. And that's saying something.

But of the three of them, you almost couldn't conceive of a crisis that is more directly attributable to one person. Right. As Andrew just told us. Yeah. The political risk here is, I think, quite profound because it is the one issue that actually he's been really, really strong on. And this could actually damage perceptions of him. And that's saying something.

I think there's a couple of things going on here. One is privately, you'd be hard pressed to find a single Republican member of Congress who isn't extremely anxious about this. And I've talked to a number of them over the last 72 hours. That's a different question from how many are willing to actually step out and publicly defy the president.

I think there's a couple of things going on here. One is privately, you'd be hard pressed to find a single Republican member of Congress who isn't extremely anxious about this. And I've talked to a number of them over the last 72 hours. That's a different question from how many are willing to actually step out and publicly defy the president.

That's a separate issue from an even more extreme scenario, which is enough Republicans, which would be two-thirds of congressional Republicans, to override a presidential veto and push legislation that would restrain his tariff powers. That seems to me, at this point, almost inconceivable. You'd have to-