Jonathan Swan

That is changing in a small way, but it's meaningful. And I think that is the biggest risk that he faces. You know, I was talking to someone over the weekend about this. And they made the point to me that if this becomes a full-blown economic crisis, we will have had three major economic crises in the last 20 years. The global financial crisis, COVID, and potentially this.

But of the three of them, you almost couldn't conceive of a crisis that is more directly attributable to one person. Right. As Andrew just told us. Yeah. The political risk here is, I think, quite profound because it is the one issue that actually he's been really, really strong on. And this could actually damage perceptions of him. And that's saying something.

But of the three of them, you almost couldn't conceive of a crisis that is more directly attributable to one person. Right. As Andrew just told us. Yeah. The political risk here is, I think, quite profound because it is the one issue that actually he's been really, really strong on. And this could actually damage perceptions of him. And that's saying something.

I think there's a couple of things going on here. One is privately, you'd be hard pressed to find a single Republican member of Congress who isn't extremely anxious about this. And I've talked to a number of them over the last 72 hours. That's a different question from how many are willing to actually step out and publicly defy the president.

I think there's a couple of things going on here. One is privately, you'd be hard pressed to find a single Republican member of Congress who isn't extremely anxious about this. And I've talked to a number of them over the last 72 hours. That's a different question from how many are willing to actually step out and publicly defy the president.

That's a separate issue from an even more extreme scenario, which is enough Republicans, which would be two-thirds of congressional Republicans, to override a presidential veto and push legislation that would restrain his tariff powers. That seems to me, at this point, almost inconceivable. You'd have to-

That's a separate issue from an even more extreme scenario, which is enough Republicans, which would be two-thirds of congressional Republicans, to override a presidential veto and push legislation that would restrain his tariff powers. That seems to me, at this point, almost inconceivable. You'd have to-

I guess you're about to say to me, sure, Michael, you need 60. You need 67. I don't see it right now. And then the House, it has to pass the House as well. And Mike Johnson has to decide to bring it up for a vote. A lot of things have to happen. And I just don't have any... that this is going to be a Congress that will step out and defy this president.

I guess you're about to say to me, sure, Michael, you need 60. You need 67. I don't see it right now. And then the House, it has to pass the House as well. And Mike Johnson has to decide to bring it up for a vote. A lot of things have to happen. And I just don't have any... that this is going to be a Congress that will step out and defy this president.

Things would have to get, I think, still substantially worse for that to happen. It's not impossible, but I think it's very unlikely.

Things would have to get, I think, still substantially worse for that to happen. It's not impossible, but I think it's very unlikely.

That's the best he can say publicly. But privately, most people on Trump's team understand that this is a very precarious situation and it can spiral out of control. And it's not for nothing that different investment banks are now altering their forecasts about recession. So they understand that this can spill over into the real economy pretty quickly and pretty profoundly.

That's the best he can say publicly. But privately, most people on Trump's team understand that this is a very precarious situation and it can spiral out of control. And it's not for nothing that different investment banks are now altering their forecasts about recession. So they understand that this can spill over into the real economy pretty quickly and pretty profoundly.

They're doing their best to contain the damage and to reassure people. I mean, you saw Scott Besant today come out with a whole lot of tweets about potential deal with Japan saying, you know, the president has authorized me to create a new golden age of trade with Japan and 50 countries have come looking for deals.

They're doing their best to contain the damage and to reassure people. I mean, you saw Scott Besant today come out with a whole lot of tweets about potential deal with Japan saying, you know, the president has authorized me to create a new golden age of trade with Japan and 50 countries have come looking for deals.

These are the sorts of messages that they're trying to reassure the markets that there is actually a method to this and a potential off-ramp from an escalating trade war.

These are the sorts of messages that they're trying to reassure the markets that there is actually a method to this and a potential off-ramp from an escalating trade war.

Right. I still, for one, having tried to cover this, don't have a sense at all that Trump is looking for an off-ramp. So I think it's what a number of his advisors are hoping that he goes for. But again, this is not clear to me at all that that's where he's going to end up.

Right. I still, for one, having tried to cover this, don't have a sense at all that Trump is looking for an off-ramp. So I think it's what a number of his advisors are hoping that he goes for. But again, this is not clear to me at all that that's where he's going to end up.

Yeah, and if you take him at his word, which is that he thinks this is necessary and that the U.S. economy needs this kind of quote-unquote medicine, the patient is very sick and it needs this medicine, and it's going to be rocky a little bit, but at the end of the tunnel is the rainbow.