Jonathan Swan

And Trump in his mind says, no, actually, this is reality. And I'm going to bend you all to my will. And I think we're now seeing the most extreme experiment of that impulse with the economy and the stock market as the potential collateral. Yeah.

Yeah, I think what's even more meaningful is, in my memory, until the last month or so, There's never been a time in the last decade where Donald Trump has been underwater in terms of public perception of his handling of the economy. So, like, one of the reasons why his approval rating is so stubbornly stable is because people have priced everything in with Trump pretty much.

Yeah, I think what's even more meaningful is, in my memory, until the last month or so, There's never been a time in the last decade where Donald Trump has been underwater in terms of public perception of his handling of the economy. So, like, one of the reasons why his approval rating is so stubbornly stable is because people have priced everything in with Trump pretty much.

You know, like, oh, I found out there's a new woman who's accused him of something. It's not like that changes their perception of Donald Trump. But the one thing he's always had... to his advantage is he is still seen, has been historically seen by a majority of Americans as a successful businessman and someone who can be trusted to handle the economy. That is changing.

You know, like, oh, I found out there's a new woman who's accused him of something. It's not like that changes their perception of Donald Trump. But the one thing he's always had... to his advantage is he is still seen, has been historically seen by a majority of Americans as a successful businessman and someone who can be trusted to handle the economy. That is changing.

That is changing in a small way, but it's meaningful. And I think that is the biggest risk that he faces. You know, I was talking to someone over the weekend about this. And they made the point to me that if this becomes a full-blown economic crisis, we will have had three major economic crises in the last 20 years. The global financial crisis, COVID, and potentially this.

That is changing in a small way, but it's meaningful. And I think that is the biggest risk that he faces. You know, I was talking to someone over the weekend about this. And they made the point to me that if this becomes a full-blown economic crisis, we will have had three major economic crises in the last 20 years. The global financial crisis, COVID, and potentially this.

But of the three of them, you almost couldn't conceive of a crisis that is more directly attributable to one person. Right. As Andrew just told us. Yeah. The political risk here is, I think, quite profound because it is the one issue that actually he's been really, really strong on. And this could actually damage perceptions of him. And that's saying something.

But of the three of them, you almost couldn't conceive of a crisis that is more directly attributable to one person. Right. As Andrew just told us. Yeah. The political risk here is, I think, quite profound because it is the one issue that actually he's been really, really strong on. And this could actually damage perceptions of him. And that's saying something.

I think there's a couple of things going on here. One is privately, you'd be hard pressed to find a single Republican member of Congress who isn't extremely anxious about this. And I've talked to a number of them over the last 72 hours. That's a different question from how many are willing to actually step out and publicly defy the president.

I think there's a couple of things going on here. One is privately, you'd be hard pressed to find a single Republican member of Congress who isn't extremely anxious about this. And I've talked to a number of them over the last 72 hours. That's a different question from how many are willing to actually step out and publicly defy the president.

That's a separate issue from an even more extreme scenario, which is enough Republicans, which would be two-thirds of congressional Republicans, to override a presidential veto and push legislation that would restrain his tariff powers. That seems to me, at this point, almost inconceivable. You'd have to-

That's a separate issue from an even more extreme scenario, which is enough Republicans, which would be two-thirds of congressional Republicans, to override a presidential veto and push legislation that would restrain his tariff powers. That seems to me, at this point, almost inconceivable. You'd have to-

I guess you're about to say to me, sure, Michael, you need 60. You need 67. I don't see it right now. And then the House, it has to pass the House as well. And Mike Johnson has to decide to bring it up for a vote. A lot of things have to happen. And I just don't have any... that this is going to be a Congress that will step out and defy this president.

I guess you're about to say to me, sure, Michael, you need 60. You need 67. I don't see it right now. And then the House, it has to pass the House as well. And Mike Johnson has to decide to bring it up for a vote. A lot of things have to happen. And I just don't have any... that this is going to be a Congress that will step out and defy this president.

Things would have to get, I think, still substantially worse for that to happen. It's not impossible, but I think it's very unlikely.

Things would have to get, I think, still substantially worse for that to happen. It's not impossible, but I think it's very unlikely.

That's the best he can say publicly. But privately, most people on Trump's team understand that this is a very precarious situation and it can spiral out of control. And it's not for nothing that different investment banks are now altering their forecasts about recession. So they understand that this can spill over into the real economy pretty quickly and pretty profoundly.

That's the best he can say publicly. But privately, most people on Trump's team understand that this is a very precarious situation and it can spiral out of control. And it's not for nothing that different investment banks are now altering their forecasts about recession. So they understand that this can spill over into the real economy pretty quickly and pretty profoundly.

They're doing their best to contain the damage and to reassure people. I mean, you saw Scott Besant today come out with a whole lot of tweets about potential deal with Japan saying, you know, the president has authorized me to create a new golden age of trade with Japan and 50 countries have come looking for deals.