Jonathan Swan

on him in the first term. You've talked about that in the past. Yeah, and it really isn't right now. And I think that's freaked a lot of people out because they had a certain set of assumptions about Donald Trump, and those assumptions are now being defied.

There's, like, a few different theories. One is he's been talking about tariffs for 40 years. Right. And in his first term, he had to run for re-election. I remember talking to some of his economic aides in the first term and people on the Hill, and Trump would say to them... don't worry, guys, year five will tackle the debt.

There's, like, a few different theories. One is he's been talking about tariffs for 40 years. Right. And in his first term, he had to run for re-election. I remember talking to some of his economic aides in the first term and people on the Hill, and Trump would say to them... don't worry, guys, year five will tackle the debt.

But we can't do anything with the debt before year five because, you know, he's got to run for re-election, didn't want to do anything to upset things. He's not running for re-election anymore. So there is a theory that, well, he feels somewhat liberated by that and he can do what he thinks is the right thing to do and move forward and deal with the consequences.

But we can't do anything with the debt before year five because, you know, he's got to run for re-election, didn't want to do anything to upset things. He's not running for re-election anymore. So there is a theory that, well, he feels somewhat liberated by that and he can do what he thinks is the right thing to do and move forward and deal with the consequences.

I think a secondary theory, which is empirically true, is he doesn't have... as many advisors around him who are making strong arguments to the contrary. In term one, he had Gary Cohn, Stephen Mnuchin, really some very anti-tariff figures around him on his economic team. And you don't have the same dynamic here.

I think a secondary theory, which is empirically true, is he doesn't have... as many advisors around him who are making strong arguments to the contrary. In term one, he had Gary Cohn, Stephen Mnuchin, really some very anti-tariff figures around him on his economic team. And you don't have the same dynamic here.

There's not people in the room arguing staunchly against tariffs full stop as there were in the first term. I think the third one is even before he ran for president, other people always end up picking up the bill for whatever he does. Like, he's never actually had to absorb and bear the consequences of his actions. And I think that's on steroids now.

There's not people in the room arguing staunchly against tariffs full stop as there were in the first term. I think the third one is even before he ran for president, other people always end up picking up the bill for whatever he does. Like, he's never actually had to absorb and bear the consequences of his actions. And I think that's on steroids now.

Like, if you just think about it, like, not only did he get through January 6th, he managed to rebrand January 6th for much of the conservative movement. He got indicted in four jurisdictions, he was criminally convicted, and then he became the President of the United States again. So...

Like, if you just think about it, like, not only did he get through January 6th, he managed to rebrand January 6th for much of the conservative movement. He got indicted in four jurisdictions, he was criminally convicted, and then he became the President of the United States again. So...

If you think about the sort of dynamic we're all aware of, which is when famous people in business or politics feel like all the naysayers have told them this thing and they were all wrong and I was right, Trump might be the most extreme example we've ever seen of that. Hmm. situations where every smarty pants in the world says, you're insane, you're wrong.

If you think about the sort of dynamic we're all aware of, which is when famous people in business or politics feel like all the naysayers have told them this thing and they were all wrong and I was right, Trump might be the most extreme example we've ever seen of that. Hmm. situations where every smarty pants in the world says, you're insane, you're wrong.

And Trump in his mind says, no, actually, this is reality. And I'm going to bend you all to my will. And I think we're now seeing the most extreme experiment of that impulse with the economy and the stock market as the potential collateral. Yeah.

And Trump in his mind says, no, actually, this is reality. And I'm going to bend you all to my will. And I think we're now seeing the most extreme experiment of that impulse with the economy and the stock market as the potential collateral. Yeah.

Yeah, I think what's even more meaningful is, in my memory, until the last month or so, There's never been a time in the last decade where Donald Trump has been underwater in terms of public perception of his handling of the economy. So, like, one of the reasons why his approval rating is so stubbornly stable is because people have priced everything in with Trump pretty much.

Yeah, I think what's even more meaningful is, in my memory, until the last month or so, There's never been a time in the last decade where Donald Trump has been underwater in terms of public perception of his handling of the economy. So, like, one of the reasons why his approval rating is so stubbornly stable is because people have priced everything in with Trump pretty much.

You know, like, oh, I found out there's a new woman who's accused him of something. It's not like that changes their perception of Donald Trump. But the one thing he's always had... to his advantage is he is still seen, has been historically seen by a majority of Americans as a successful businessman and someone who can be trusted to handle the economy. That is changing.

You know, like, oh, I found out there's a new woman who's accused him of something. It's not like that changes their perception of Donald Trump. But the one thing he's always had... to his advantage is he is still seen, has been historically seen by a majority of Americans as a successful businessman and someone who can be trusted to handle the economy. That is changing.

That is changing in a small way, but it's meaningful. And I think that is the biggest risk that he faces. You know, I was talking to someone over the weekend about this. And they made the point to me that if this becomes a full-blown economic crisis, we will have had three major economic crises in the last 20 years. The global financial crisis, COVID, and potentially this.