Jonathan Swan

He might do some deals, but actually, no, he's really... quite set on this idea of eliminating trade deficits and reshoring manufacturing and building things here in America. So you have these two things running into each other. One problem that some of his advisors have, I would say most of his advisors have if they're being honest, is

get criticized a lot for, well, your messaging is so all over the place. It's like, yeah, no kidding. Because the man in charge... His messaging is all over the place. Yeah, from one minute to the other. It's like, you know, he's in deal-making mode and then he's in, no, this is an economic revolution and you need to hang tough. You're getting these competing messengers...

get criticized a lot for, well, your messaging is so all over the place. It's like, yeah, no kidding. Because the man in charge... His messaging is all over the place. Yeah, from one minute to the other. It's like, you know, he's in deal-making mode and then he's in, no, this is an economic revolution and you need to hang tough. You're getting these competing messengers...

I will say it's not just reporters who've been surprised. It's not just pundits that have been surprised or his donors. But some of his advisors, I think, were still of the mindset that this would be term one Trump. And term one Trump talked a really big game on tariffs. But actually, when the market started to wobble, he backed off and he was much the stock market operated as a check.

I will say it's not just reporters who've been surprised. It's not just pundits that have been surprised or his donors. But some of his advisors, I think, were still of the mindset that this would be term one Trump. And term one Trump talked a really big game on tariffs. But actually, when the market started to wobble, he backed off and he was much the stock market operated as a check.

on him in the first term. You've talked about that in the past. Yeah, and it really isn't right now. And I think that's freaked a lot of people out because they had a certain set of assumptions about Donald Trump, and those assumptions are now being defied.

on him in the first term. You've talked about that in the past. Yeah, and it really isn't right now. And I think that's freaked a lot of people out because they had a certain set of assumptions about Donald Trump, and those assumptions are now being defied.

There's, like, a few different theories. One is he's been talking about tariffs for 40 years. Right. And in his first term, he had to run for re-election. I remember talking to some of his economic aides in the first term and people on the Hill, and Trump would say to them... don't worry, guys, year five will tackle the debt.

There's, like, a few different theories. One is he's been talking about tariffs for 40 years. Right. And in his first term, he had to run for re-election. I remember talking to some of his economic aides in the first term and people on the Hill, and Trump would say to them... don't worry, guys, year five will tackle the debt.

But we can't do anything with the debt before year five because, you know, he's got to run for re-election, didn't want to do anything to upset things. He's not running for re-election anymore. So there is a theory that, well, he feels somewhat liberated by that and he can do what he thinks is the right thing to do and move forward and deal with the consequences.

But we can't do anything with the debt before year five because, you know, he's got to run for re-election, didn't want to do anything to upset things. He's not running for re-election anymore. So there is a theory that, well, he feels somewhat liberated by that and he can do what he thinks is the right thing to do and move forward and deal with the consequences.

I think a secondary theory, which is empirically true, is he doesn't have... as many advisors around him who are making strong arguments to the contrary. In term one, he had Gary Cohn, Stephen Mnuchin, really some very anti-tariff figures around him on his economic team. And you don't have the same dynamic here.

I think a secondary theory, which is empirically true, is he doesn't have... as many advisors around him who are making strong arguments to the contrary. In term one, he had Gary Cohn, Stephen Mnuchin, really some very anti-tariff figures around him on his economic team. And you don't have the same dynamic here.

There's not people in the room arguing staunchly against tariffs full stop as there were in the first term. I think the third one is even before he ran for president, other people always end up picking up the bill for whatever he does. Like, he's never actually had to absorb and bear the consequences of his actions. And I think that's on steroids now.

There's not people in the room arguing staunchly against tariffs full stop as there were in the first term. I think the third one is even before he ran for president, other people always end up picking up the bill for whatever he does. Like, he's never actually had to absorb and bear the consequences of his actions. And I think that's on steroids now.

Like, if you just think about it, like, not only did he get through January 6th, he managed to rebrand January 6th for much of the conservative movement. He got indicted in four jurisdictions, he was criminally convicted, and then he became the President of the United States again. So...

Like, if you just think about it, like, not only did he get through January 6th, he managed to rebrand January 6th for much of the conservative movement. He got indicted in four jurisdictions, he was criminally convicted, and then he became the President of the United States again. So...

If you think about the sort of dynamic we're all aware of, which is when famous people in business or politics feel like all the naysayers have told them this thing and they were all wrong and I was right, Trump might be the most extreme example we've ever seen of that. Hmm. situations where every smarty pants in the world says, you're insane, you're wrong.

If you think about the sort of dynamic we're all aware of, which is when famous people in business or politics feel like all the naysayers have told them this thing and they were all wrong and I was right, Trump might be the most extreme example we've ever seen of that. Hmm. situations where every smarty pants in the world says, you're insane, you're wrong.

And Trump in his mind says, no, actually, this is reality. And I'm going to bend you all to my will. And I think we're now seeing the most extreme experiment of that impulse with the economy and the stock market as the potential collateral. Yeah.