Jordi Visser

They're waving the white flag and saying, okay, no mas.

What does that mean?

Meaning tariffs got levied and there was a mini panic, stock sold off, Trump and the administration stepped in with a bunch of words, and eventually the market recovered and zoomed higher.

Based on prediction markets, boots on the ground, 70% odds by the end of April, give or take.

Yep.

The straight being open, 30% odds by the end of April.

What do those two numbers tell you?

You know what I was talking to a friend about this week?

Remember when off of Somalia, maybe even like the Horn of Africa, there was all the pirate issues and like Maersk and all these companies were reporting saying, you know, basically the pirate threat is real.

It was very simple.

They basically hired private military contractors.

They put them on these ships and they said, if a pirate comes near, shoot them.

And we're going to defend our ships, but we're going to keep our ships moving.

You can't do that with a mine in the ocean or a drone overhead, right?

So it is a different thing.

Now, when this all kicked off, my thought process was the deflationary force that is structural, that is swallowing the US economy is going to overwhelm any terms of short-term inflationary pressure from higher oil prices because I thought it's going to be a two-week thing.

We're going to go bomb a bunch, right?

Venezuela was quick.

The first Iran bombing was very quick.

Two weeks, we're out.