Jordi Visser

Again, when you're in a Ponzi scheme, and I'm not saying Blue Owl is a Ponzi scheme, but I am saying if you're in a Ponzi scheme and you have a lot of money, as long as you have some cash, you can go.

So if you're selling off the best assets to get cash to give out, unfortunately you end up in a situation where I think the skepticism on these businesses, since no one knows for sure, especially in private credit, is gonna remain as long as the deflationary pressures and technology stay.

a scenario that could happen this year that would drive the market down significantly.

And even though it wouldn't stay down, the one thing I know about credit is when you start seeing the charts that I'll show this weekend, which are, okay, we don't have high yield spreads widening out, but we do have the tech high yield spreads widening out.

So a lot of times there's enough diversification it can go.

My fear is this.

If I asked you what's the biggest problem

debt fear story in the world, it's the hyperscalers.

I mean, Oracle's taking out lots of money.

Their CDS is through the roof, meaning people are betting in a

fairly high probability that they'll have trouble in the next five years.

Google just issued 30 some odd billion dollars of debt.

These companies that never issued debt are now aggressively issuing debt.

So if there was a problem, it would have to be on the hyperscalers.

That's the only thing big enough in this to make people shake, and they've been worried about it.

I think this year, if the credit stuff continues, and I've talked about this, if software doesn't bounce,

and I don't think it'll bounce significantly, but it either needs to become a value trap, meaning it just kind of sits at these depressed multiples and everyone's trying to spend time picking and choosing it, but it's not worth it because it's just dead money for now.

You could end up in a scenario that if it falls down, one of the hyperscalers is Microsoft.

Microsoft, it's part of the SaaS world, but it's also part of the hyperscaler world.

So they're kind of in the epicenter, and they've got one foot in there, one foot in the hyperscalers.