Jordi Visser

The hyperscalers have underperformed the market significantly.

It's one of the reasons why I'm positive on global things.

You asked me, and I didn't directly answer it last week, but you said, okay, you might be freaking people out.

Where should they put their money?

I'm like, well, if you want to be safe and make money this year, it's commodities, but it's also moving into Europe and emerging markets and Japan and other places because they don't have that much software.

90% of the software

In MSCI world is US companies.

So if you don't wanna be in the pain, go to the foreign countries, because they have a lot more manufacturing and commodities.

So I do think that the reality is if people wanna get negative for this year, you could easily get to the point, particularly with the Chinese models coming out faster and faster and faster, with the likelihood of data centers not being built on time,

the reality that we're heading into midterm elections where right now it is starting to move we're not only in the house right now but we're starting to get in the senate probabilities for republicans to lose that i think the data center ai pushback could be a bigger story as we get into the second half of the year and i think you can make an argument that if the hyperscalers

and their ability to actually get this stuff done, they need the revenues to get their RPOs.

They are spending the money.

If these bottlenecks between memory and turbines and all this stuff really start to back up,

and the Chinese models keep accelerating, you could end up a point where people start worrying that this is real and maybe open AI is an issue and all this stuff comes to the market.

When you already have credit weakening and you've got the stories I mentioned about other parts of the market, plus you have the auto lending side, you still have the commercial real estate side, it all starts to add up.

And if that happens and you move equities down, then it turns into a very, very scary event for a short amount of time.

And I do think this year that is a probability that is

greater than 25% that we get a shock of that magnitude in our heads, whether it's 5%, 10%, 15% fall in the S&P, I do think it's gonna happen this year.

I'm gonna go in detail at the very beginning to emphasize that I think people are now at the stage where if you've ignored AI,

as a money manager, as someone trading, you don't have any time anymore.