Jordi Visser

had deleveraging shocks and all of them all of those needed something from the government at some point so in 2020 we got the fire hosing of liquidity in 2022 we had the fed pivot of okay we've gone far enough a lot of people disagreed with it that marked the bottom in bitcoin and in this and it started the next rally in 2023 we had silicon valley bank we had a run on it all the banks were going out of business

Bitcoin came out of that.

So for the crowd out there in Bitcoin, the survive and thrive mode of which I'm going through now, it's really important to be ready for the thrive mode.

And in 2025, we had Liberation Day.

And what happened?

The government said, we're just kidding.

Tariffs are not going to be that bad.

We'll wait till July.

At some point, the deleveraging starts to infect everything.

And this is my belief.

And this is why I said, if people are just out there saying buy software and they're not acknowledging that there's a multiple re-rating, you have to remember that

that right now the market cap of the S&P 500 related to GDP, which was the reason I said that last year they couldn't afford for this to go down, it's at 220%.

Stock market's been going up faster than GDP.

which historically it's called the Buffett indicator for a reason.

He's not buying any stocks.

And I think the reason he's not buying any stocks is because in his mind, everything is expensive.

And the reality is when you do it on a price to sales basis and you think about what's happening to software, arguably the most important

position in everyone's portfolio particularly when you include the hyperscalers even without the hyperscalers x hyperscaler software is by far the most important and it's a u.s dominated thing so when you move down software and you see credit widening and tenure rates going down they're building in the probability that there's another survive regime coming

i believe the probability of the survive regime because of what i mentioned turbulence real things from open clone all this which i talked about i believe things are speeding up now and you're going to see a rise in volatility a move lower in rates and whether we need the fed to act or not i do think the deleveraging signs that have spread to credit private equity things we talked about blue owl all of them

This is starting to smell a little bit like another one of those survive modes, and I think people should start paying more attention.