Julia Coronado

But they just put out their growth forecast and it's pretty subdued for next year.

So the trade wars, the immigration policy, the frictions between the U.S.

and Mexico are not great for the Mexican economy.

and are not great for Texas, to be honest.

Texas is OK, but usually Texas is a bright, shining star.

I'm living here in Austin and, you know, the Texas economy is it's OK, but it's it's not the bright, shining spot it used to be because all of these things, the trade wars, the immigration policy really do hit Texas hard, too.

Well, I think we're above their longer run estimate of 4.2%.

I think once we start heading north of four and a half, and it's not just the level, the level matters.

So I think we're at a level that's a little worrisome.

When we saw the unemployment rate rising last summer, we were rising from such a low level that it was,

kind of hard to worry too much about it, right?

We were going from 3.4 to the low fours.

That was sort of more of a normalization in conditions than a weakening.

Now we're at the low fours.

We're at sort of neutral or longer run, and we're rising from here to a labor market that's clearly loosening.

If you look at, like, say, the Conference Board survey of consumers, consumers are getting gloomy about the labor market.

If you look at nominal wage growth, the Indeed wage tracker is what we have in our most timely basis, showing wage growth decelerating below the rate of inflation.

These are indications that the labor market is not just balanced.

but weak.

No, no.