Julia Coronado
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
If you look at, like, say, the Conference Board survey of consumers, consumers are getting gloomy about the labor market.
If you look at nominal wage growth, the Indeed wage tracker is what we have in our most timely basis, showing wage growth decelerating below the rate of inflation.
These are indications that the labor market is not just balanced.
but weak.
No, no.
And you shouldn't, because if this continues, then the Fed will cut and they will cut in December.
It's poised to cut in December for exactly that reason.
When we saw the September labor report, we said going in, the most important number is the unemployment rates.
Forget payrolls.
They're overstated.
They haven't been benchmarked.
Blah, blah, blah.
Seasonal noise.
Look at the unemployment rate.
And it went up and nobody expected it to go up.
So that was the news.
The news was the labor market is weakening.
The Fed is a go.
And that looks to be where they've landed.
And yet I think, Tom, that the trick is the committee.